梅拉梅德：40 years ago, some of you weren’t get born. I had an idea, the idea was the futures markets should work not just for agriculture, but also in finance. Up to then, futures markets were agriculture, strictly agriculture. There was corn, wheat, grains, there were cattle, hogs, butter, eggs, no finance. And I thought, when I became chairman of the CME, that why should there not be financial futures? Why should be limited to agricultures. Everyone said to me that I was silly, I was too young to understand that the future can only work in agriculture. I didn’t agree, and so I had to convince a 12 member of our board, I need 7 votes, the majority, but I couldn’t get 7 votes, because they thought it was bad idea. So I went to a professor, who was a very famous economist, who’s name you may know, is Milton Friedman, he was a professor of the University of Chicago, just a couple miles away. I met with him, and I said to him, I have this idea, this idea is to launch a market in finance, beginning with the currency market. He said it is a wonderful idea, why don’t you do it. I said, would you say that again, I didn’t believe that. He says “yeah yeah”, it is a wonderful idea, do it. I said, you know no one will believe me that you said this, no one will believe me. He said, well tell them I said so. I said I need it in writing. He said, “oh you want a feasibility study? Like will Currency make a good futures market”? I said exactly, that’s what I want. He said, well I’m a capitalist. I said ok, how much? He said 7500 dollars, 7500 dollars for a feasibility study. That 7500 dollars is worth 18 billion today, because that’s what the CME is worth. So it is a good trade. If you ever want to make a good trade, that’s a good trade. Because I took that idea, and spread it not just to the CME, but to the world. We started with currency futures, and then we went to interest rate futures, and then we went to stock index futures, and it began to expand and work. And pretty soon, I convinced London, that they need a futures market in finance like ours, and later Germany, and then later Japan, and then later Singapore, Korea, and now it is China’s turn. So few years ago, about 4 years ago, I met with vice premier, Wang Qi Shan. I said to him, why don’t you have a financial futures exchange, today, futures markets are 80% finance, China is ready for a financial futures exchange. He listened to me. 2 years later, the CIFFEX opened and listed the Shanghai 300. As you all know, the Shanghai 300 is the most successful market ever started, immediate success, immediate trading. Because the idea of finance futures is so powerful. And today no financial centre in the world can exist, if it doesn’t have a futures market, both agriculture and finance, both are important. But finance is clearly in the best interest today for China. China cannot reach the level of its potential that it deserves, unless it expands its usage of futures markets into other products, so they are talking now about having crude oil contract, a very good idea. China is the big, the biggest consumer of crude oil in the world. It ought to have a market that is the benchmark that it determines and helps to determine the pricing of oil. Similarly, they taking about the bond market, either a 5 or 7 year bond market, and that is exactly right. China needs to have a futures market in bond. They talking about options on futures, and that’s right. Because what these instruments do is create liquidity and builds the capital market of China, without it, it won’t work. And one thing that you soon have to do is internationalize. Because while your market that exist is very successful, probably because the CIFCO is so successful, CIFCO and other firms. But they are not successful enough, because they do not participate with foreign competition, now the move has been made, to broad the market to foreign competition. And there are firms are chosen, to bring that broadening and form business on their market and your market here. CIFCO is double A, double A out of the firms. I said congratulations. And it will succeed. Because the idea is so powerful, without this idea you cannot hedge your risk in business. With this idea, you have a chance to risk secured. There are lots of speculations too, because market doesn’t work without speculation. You must have both commercial and speculation, but because of that, the market allows the business to hedge the risk in business, and in that way, it could use the capital in better ways to build the business further. Every market in the world has alert the absolute necessity of futures, and particularly financial futures. So I’m delighted to be here and advance this idea. I have been dealing with China for very very long time. I met with president Li Xiannian personally in Chicago 1985. For sure many of you were born. In 1985, president Li Xiannian came to my office in Chicago and I showed him how the market work. That visit began the friendship of me and China, and since that time, I been to China again again and again, and each time, I gave them advice, gave them courage, and incentive to move forward, because the Chinese people are extremely bright, you learn very fast, and that is very good. So I have great, great hopes for China, I am a very strong proponent of China and its market, and the friendship between us and the Chinese people, thank you very much

中译：

梅拉梅德：40年前，有些人可能还没有出生，我就有一个想法：那就是期货不应当只包括农产品，还应当包括金融产品。直到那时，期货市场还只是交易农产品，只有农产品。有玉米，小麦，大麦，牛，猪，黄油和鸡蛋，没有金融产品。当我成为CME集团的主席，我就想为什么会没有金融产品，为什么只有农产品？所有人都对我说我很傻，太年轻了，还不懂期货市场只是农产品。但我不同意，所以我需要让董事会的12名成员信服，我需要7名董事，一半以上的人认同我，但我没有得到7名赞同票，因为大家都觉得这个想法不好。后来我找到一位教授，也是著名的经济学家，大家可能知道他的名字，他叫Milton Friedman, 米尔顿.佛里德曼。（1976年获诺贝尔经济学奖）他是芝加哥大学的一位教授。与我只有几公里远，我见到他跟他说了我的想法，跟他说我想发起金融期货市场，从货币市场开始。他说这个想法非常棒，为什么你不去做？我说，你能再说一遍吗？我无法相信。他说这个想法很好，赶快去做！我跟他说，没有人会相信你刚才说的，没有人会相信我的。他说，那你去告诉大家是我说的。我说，那我需要书面的形式。他问我，那你是要一份关于货币是否会成为一个好的期货市场的可行性研究吗？我说是的，正是这样，这就是我想要的。他说，我是一个资本家。我说好，多少钱？他说，7500美元，一个可行性研究7500美元。这个7500美元今天价值180亿美元，因为这是整个CME的价值。所以这是一个很好的交易。如果谁想做一个好的交易，这就是一个。正因为我不光将这个想法传播至CME，还有整个世界，我们从货币期货开始，然后我们想推出利率期货，然后是股指期货，然后开始扩大工作。很快，我让伦敦相信他们也需要像我们一样的金融期货市场，接着是德国，然后日本，然后是新加坡，韩国，现在轮到中国了。几年前，大概4年前，我见到副总理王岐山，我跟他说，为什么你们没有一个金融期货交易所。今天期货市场80%是金融产品，中国已经准备好建设一个金融期货交易所。他听了我的建议，2年后，中金所成立，推出沪深300股指期货。大家知道，沪深300是至今为止最成功的市场，空前成功，交易量空前。因为金融期货这个想法非常强大，如果没有期货市场，今天就不会有金融中心的存在,农产品和金融两者都很重要。但今天中国无疑是金融期货的最大受益者。中国如果不利用期货市场来参与到其他产品，很难充分发挥这个国家内在的潜能。所以他们现在说推出石油，是个很好的想法。中国是世界最大的石油消耗者。中国应当有一个市场，一个基准来决定和帮助决定原油的价格。同样的，他们还说债券市场，不论5年还是7年的债券，这个也很正确。中国需要一个债券期货市场。他们还说期货期权，也很对。因为这些产品都将提高市场的流动性，建设中国资本市场，没有这些将不能成事。还有一件应当做的就是走向国际化。因为尽管中国市场很成功，可能是因为有中期这么成功，中期和其他一些公司，但这不还够，因为还没有参与到国外的竞争。现在要付诸行动了，扩大市场，加入到国际竞争中。有一些公司被选中来参与到国际市场中。中期在这些公司中是AA公司，我向你们表示恭喜。我相信这会成功，因为这个想法非常强大，没有这个想法，大家没办法对冲风险。有了这个就有了机会，因为有很多投机者，有了保险，因为没有投机者市场无法工作，必须有商业者和投机者，也因为这样，市场允许企业来对冲企业风险，这样也可以更有效的利用资本来帮助进一步发展。全球每一个期货市场都意识到期货的绝对必要性，尤其是金融期货。所以我很高兴来到这里，促进这个想法。我与中国已经相处很久很久了，1985年我在芝加哥与前国家主席李先念见面，相信你们大家很多都已经出生了，1985年李先念主席来到我在芝加哥的办公室，我给他介绍市场是如何运行的。那次见面就是我与中国之间友谊的开始。从那时起，我屡次来到中国，每次来给他们建议，勇气和鼓励来推动他们，因为中国人非常聪明，学的非常快，这非常好。我对中国有很高很高的期望，我是中国强有力的支持者，无论是中国的市场还是我和中国人之间的友谊。非常感谢！

主持人：我想问下夏斌所长，人民币国际化，刚才梅拉梅德先生讲，可能很快，应该下个月就在芝加哥CME交易所就推出来以离岸人民币的期货，挂牌交易，它还可以做实物交割，在香港进行交割，这个对于人民币国际化有重大好处。而这个离岸人民币和在岸人民币有价差会为投资者带来套利机会。那么这个离岸人民币期货推广和您说的人民币国际化是不是有殊途同归的一个作用？

夏斌：我在2009年就中国人民币国际化路线图用通俗的话讲过三句话，在我《中国金融战略2020》这本书都有，一句话是要想尽办法让人民币走出去，让人民币到境外去，走出去。第二句话，出去的人民币想尽办法让他自己玩起来，各种各样的产品，各种各样的方式，我们都支持，我们不阻挡，人家怎么玩的，我们都让他去玩，无非就多了一个货币。第三句话，中国的人民币能够走出去，海外的投资者、居民、债人和企业愿意持有人民币，不需要是能够享受中国经济增长的好处，言外之意，让他有管制，目前是有管制的回流。这是人民币国际化中间的三个点。你刚才问的问题仅仅是人民币在外面玩起来的一种方式，而且不是在香港离岸市场，也不是在伦敦离岸市场，是在芝加哥交易所做人民币交易、期货交易，我认为完全可以。不仅芝加哥可以，我认为其他国家都可以做。当然有个交割的问题，刚才梅拉梅德先生说的对，在香港交割，所以我认为更没问题。听到这个消息以后，我所谓感叹的是我在前面演讲所讲的，在中国境内，在中国金融国门还没有完全打开，资本限还没有完全放开，在人民币还没有兑换之前，我们境内的人民币的各种品种要尽快的发展起来，就是，人民币期货，各种各样的交易属性，我们应该都自己自己玩起来，开始锻炼，积累经验。对我们的世界，有关部门，应该想尽办法加快速度，这是我希望今天能够让我们的媒体说出去的话。

主持人：我也想问一下梅拉梅德先生，人民币还不能跟境外流通，离岸人民币规模有限。 那么芝加哥交易所的人民币期货，会不会因为现货市场不充分，致使交易价格产生误导，与整体离岸人民币产生价差，这样对人民币国际化会不会有正向的作用？

梅拉梅德：The question of the RMB is a very very important question. Obviously, the RMB has the potential to be the reserve currency just like the dollar is. But for that to happen, the RMB must become much more flexible, in its convertibility into other currencies, and to do that, the RMB has to widen its band until the time when it is totally convertible, hopefully in a few years. But in the mean time, the world has to get use using RMB for its trade, the more trade that is done in RMB, the more the world get use to use RMB, and that will be the benefit of China. So I am here, as CME, is to help that process. Up to now, we are having RMB trading, which is for settlement, not delivery. But the settlement is not good enough for this market. We know that in Hong Kong recently will launch deliverable RMB contract. They announce the deliverable of RMB contract. We too, at the CME, are going to do that. That will provide the world trade, with the ability to actually get deliverable RMB for its dollars or euro or yen in Hong Kong delivery. That will be a huge advancement in making RMB to be an international currency, and that’s the whole effort, we are in very much favor of this, we think it is going to happen very soon, and I think the capital market in China will be the beneficiary.

（中译）：

梅拉梅德：关于人民币的问题非常非常重要。显然的，人民币理应成为与美元一样的储备货币。要达到这一点，人民币兑换其他货币需要变得更加自由，要做到这一点，人民币需要放宽松，直到可自由兑换，希望这一点能在未来几年实现。但在此同时，世界各地需要使用人民币作为贸易结算货币。只有更多的贸易采用人民币结算，市场才会逐渐接受使用人民币，这也会为中国带来利益，所以我在这里，代表CME，来帮助推进这个进程。现在CME有人民币期货交易，但是这个期货合约目前只能现金交割，而不能现货交割，但这对市场来说是不够的。最近港交所将推出在香港交割的人民币期货，我们CME也有此打算。这将使市场参与者能在香港收到兑美元、欧元、日元的人民币现货，为人民币走向国际化提供巨大帮助。我们（CME）相信这个进程会非常快，并且乐于推动其发展，我们相信中国资本市场会从中获益良多。

主持人：听完梅拉梅德先生所说，夏斌所长我有一种担心，一旦人民币在芝加哥交易所进行交易，在香港形成交割，形成一个离岸边人民币交易价格，和我们央行公布的外汇牌价，会不会形成引领作用，会不会冲击我们国内人民币定价体系？

夏斌：期货交易的离岸价格的降低前一阵子，现在同时存在ETF的市场一样，是必然的，这是第一；第二呢，我们要搞人民币离岸市场，我们的资本限现在不马上放开，套利是必然的，我们要想尽办法把套利降低到最低的限度，意味着，反过来要逼着我们要加快汇率的改革，加快结构要调整。我刚才听梅拉梅德先生说的，香港办了人民币期货交易，那么芝加哥与香港比，有对哦大竞争空间。因为芝加哥不能交割，伦敦还可以做结算交割。

梅拉梅德：We always believe that competition is good, so we are not afraid of competition, because competition advances the product, it’s always a good thing. Because it keeps both parties or three parties under toast, they have to be smarter, they maybe have to be smarter the next time. But you learn from that, you compete all time and the more you compete, the better the result. So we will compete with Hong Kong. But RMB is so big, that the two markets are not enough. Probably more markets are necessary.

（中译）：

梅拉梅德：我们（CME）相信竞争是有利的，我们不惧竞争，因为竞争会使产品更优秀，是件好事。因为这使参与者变得更聪明，不停竞争并从竞争中学习，竞争越多，结果越好。因此我们会与香港竞争。但是人民币市场非常大，2个市场是不够的，还需要更多。

夏斌：作为一个中国学者，我不是担心竞争，我是非常欢迎，与香港市场、芝加哥市场，甚至与更多的国家市场竞争。