美东时间2023年4月6日-8日，第十五届哥伦比亚大学中国峰会即将召开，喜马拉雅资本执行董事兼首席运营官常劲先生也将与会，参与华人影响力分论坛的讨论。

　　这两年时间过得飞快，犹记得2021年4月14日，芒格书院的公众号正式上线，而就在几天前的4月10日，在第十三届哥伦比亚中国商业大会中，李录先生和格林沃尔德教授就价值投资在中国这个话题，进行了精彩的炉边对话。

　　这两年来，大家对价值投资的知与行，是否有所精进？

　　本次推文就带大家重温一下李录先生与格林沃尔德教授的这次对话。

　　中英对照完整文本转发自成甲老师公众号（PKM100)。访谈内容分为三个部分：

　　一、李录价值投资理念与哲学发展

　　1、李录价值投资的哲学和理念有何变化？

　　2、李录和其他价值投资者之间有什么区别？

　　3、投资者应该是专才还是通才？

　　4、价值投资者新人应该接受什么样的教育？

　　5、李录如何回顾看待自己过往的人生决策？

　　二、价值投资研究公司相关的方法

　　1、好公司的特点和估值方式

　　2、好公司获得持续竞争优势的因素有哪些？

　　3、李录在挑选要投资的公司时考虑哪些因素？

　　4、投资中，如何看待公司管理层?

　　三、对宏观市场环境的分析与评论

　　1、今天市场的情况像过往当中的哪一个阶段呢？

　　2、如何应对宏观环境的各种危机?

　　3、如何理解亚洲尤其是中国市场？

　　4、新兴科技是否会吸引李录这样的价值投资者？

　　5、如何看待美国亚裔群体的生存现状？

　　主持人Bruce：

　　Live streaming from Columbia business School in New York city.My name is Bruce.Welcome to the final session of the 13th Columbia China business conference.Home to value investing,Columbia business school is at the forefront of the theoretical development and practices of value investing.

　　这里是纽约哥伦比亚商学院的现场直播，我是Bruce。欢迎各位出席哥伦比亚中国商业论坛的最后一场讨论。哥伦比亚大学商学院是价值投资的发源地，也是价值投资理论发展和实践的前沿。

　　Given the ever changing global dynamics and market uncertainties,what are the potential advancements on unwavering fundamentals of value investing?How should practitioners realize about investing in China?

　　面临瞬息万变的全球局势和市场的不确定性，价值投资的基本思想和方法有何可能的改进？实践者如何在中国实现价值投资？

　　Joining us today are Professor Bruce Greenwald and Mr.Li Lu.

　　今天参加我们论坛的嘉宾是Bruce Greenwald教授和李录先生。

　　Professor Bruce Greenwald is the founding director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing at Columbia business school.It& #39;s a leading voice in value investing.

　　Bruce Greenwald教授是哥伦比亚学商学院哥雷厄姆和多德投资法海尔布伦中心的创始主任，他是一位价值投资的主要倡导者。

　　Mr.Li Lu is the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital,a multi-billion dollar investment firm that primarily focus on long-term investment opportunities in Asia and the US.He& #39;s a distinguishing alumnus of Columbia,and Mr.Li Lu currently serves as a member of the board of trustees of Columbia University.Mr.Li Lu has in-depth knowledge about the Chinese market.His insights are trusted by investment legends like Buffett and Munger.

　　李录先生是喜马拉雅资本的创始人兼董事长，喜马拉雅资本是一家管理着上百亿美元资产的投资公司，主要专注于亚洲和美国的长期投资机会。李录先生也是哥伦比亚大学的杰出校友，他在哥大同时获得了三个学位，他现在还是哥大董事会的成员。

　　Professor Greenwald routinely won plaudits for his classes and has trained a generation of value investors,including Mr.Li Lu himself.Mr.Li Lu has in-depth knowledge about the Chinese market.His insights are trusted by investment legends like Buffett and Munger.

　　Bruce Greenwald教授在哥大商学院开办的价值投资课程一直受到学生们的追捧，并培养了一代的价值投资者，其中就包括李录先生本人。李录先生对中国市场有着深入的了解，他对中国市场的洞见得到了巴菲特和芒格等投资传奇人物的认可。

　　Now,imagine yourself stepping into the most overcrowded investment classroom at one of the best business schools across the globe.Welcome professor Greenwald and Mr.Li.

　　现在，想象你自己身处世界上最好的商学院最拥挤的投资课堂上，让我们欢迎Bruce Greenwald教授和李先生。

　　李录价值投资理念与哲学发展

　　1、李录价值投资的哲学和理念有何变化？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　I think this is gonna be a rare privilege for everybody.I& #39;ve only known Li Lu for more than 20 years and not only is he a great investor,but he& #39;s a great conversationalist.So why don& #39;t we just start out by talking about how your investment philosophy has changed?Because value investing is,after all,always an evolving field,since you began the field,literally,I think I would say,25 years ago?20 years ago?

　　(Mr.Li Lu:More like 28,hahaha.)

　　How time flies!So how has it evolved?How have you been influenced by people like Charlie Munger and so on?Go ahead.

　　这次对谈对大家来说都是非常难得的机会，我认识李录二十多年了，他不仅是一个顶级投资人，也是一个很好的谈话对象。首先我想请你跟大家分享一下，从你接触和学习价值投资到实践的这20多年中，伴随着价值投资理念的进化，你的投资哲学与理论发生过怎样的变化呢？像查理·芒格等这样的价值投资者是如何影响你的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well so before I started,I just want to,first of all,thank you for all the organizers of this great conferences.I mean,look at all the speakers,they are just really unbelievable.The quality of the student has dramatically improved since I was the student there,so thank you for all for that wonderful work of putting together this great conferences.

　　首先我想感谢这次大会的主办者（哥大商学院中国学生会）！我看了大会的议程，这次论坛受邀嘉宾的规格之高令人难以置信，说明今天哥大商学院学生的质量与我当年相比已经有了戏剧性的提升！非常感谢你们做出的所有工作，才将所有的要素汇聚在一起，办成了这么棒的一个论坛。我非常的荣幸和高兴受邀来跟Bruce Greenwald教授一起参加这场讨论。

　　In fact,I got into this field really because of Professor Green Greenwald’s class.I think that,you know,basically you got Buffett to come to speak to a student rally,roughly 28 years ago.And it was really that first lecture that really got me into this field.So thank you so much.

　　我走上价值投资之路，其实就是因为当时听了布鲁斯·格林伍德教授的一堂价值投资课。我还清楚记得，那是在28年前，布鲁斯·格林伍德教授请来巴菲特先生给学生上课。就是因为我当年在您的课堂上听了巴菲特先生的演讲，从此走上价值投资这条路。所以我太感谢教授您了。

　　And of course,I later,as a business school student,took all of the courses that Professor Green Greenwald offered and learned a great deal,made a lot of money too,so thank you.

　　当然，后来我就转到哥大商学院学习，修完了布鲁斯·格林伍德教授教的所有课程，学到很多东西，这让我赚了很多钱。所以我特别感谢您，布鲁斯·格林伍德教授，当然也感谢商学院。（笑）

　　Yeah,So the philosophy is that,it is you know uh relatively simple,the practice is really hard.So I wouldn& #39;t say the philosophy really evolved all that much for me.Before I got really exposed to value investing through Buffett& #39;s lecture at Professor Bruce Greenwald& #39;s class,I think my whole approach to life was pretty much a set along similar lines,and so there& #39;s not much of a jump for me.

　　价值投资知易行难，道理很简单，实践却很难。我不能说价值投资理论本身发生过多大的变化。其实在我听巴菲特先生在您价值投资课所做演讲之前，我在生活中为人处世的基本原则就和价值投资的想法是基本一致的，因此对我本人而言，并没有什么巨大的变化。

　　The idea of uh buying something at a discount for something that really worth more,is simply intelligent.So I would say that almost all intelligent investing involves some kind of value investing.And now the difference is it is that your focus on value evolves over time.And to different individuals,they tend to focus on different areas of that.

　　这种以较低的价格、买有更高价值的东西的做法，本身就很聪明，我认为所有聪明的投资方法都会某种程度地涉及价值投资的理念，差别就在于人们对价值的关注点会随着时间演进变化，不同的价值投资者对价值的关注点不太一样。

　　For me,when I first started as a value investor,this is now 27 or 28 years ago,when I bought my first stock,I don& #39;t really know much about business.I know I was born and raised in China during the Cultural Revolution.There was not much of a private business or open market economy back then.So I have to learn everything anew.

　　对我来说，自28年前我开始了价值投资。其实当我购买第一只股票的时候，对商业的了解并不多。我在中国出生，并成长于六七十年代，那时并没有多少私人的商业行为和开放的市场经济，因此，我需要从头学习商业相关的所有内容。

　　So at the beginning,obviously look for value primarily on the balance sheet,in the classic style of Benjamin Graham,looking for a cigarette butt,looking for the last puff basically,looking for statistically cheap businesses,and ignore what the business really is,and that served me well.

　　一开始，我主要是践行本杰明·格雷厄姆的经典风格，埋头在资产负债表里寻找一些有价值的“烟蒂股”（企业价格低于流动资产价值的股票）。巴菲特把这种投资策略比喻为捡烟头——像在路上找人家丢弃不要的烟头，短得你只能抽上最后一口了，但是价格便宜啊，免费，不用花一分钱。（那时的我）基本上只是在找这种统计学意义上的便宜的生意，虽然我靠这个过的还不错，但却忽略了股票背后生意的本质是什么。

　　And that over time I evolved into understanding smaller businesses.And because I was just intensively curious about how businesses run,so much so,I actually involved into health funding or co-creating a dozen or so early-stage start-up companies.And that experience has taught me a lot about how business run,what constitute a good or bad or mediocre businesses.

　　但随着时间的推移，我对商业是如何运作的有了强烈的兴趣，我开始逐渐更理解相对小一些公司的商业模式。实际上，我参与投资或共同创建了十几个早期创业公司。这段经历教会了我很多关于商业运作的知识，并了解到哪些要素构成一个好生意、差生意或平庸的生意。

　　And so over time I evolved into looking for really good businesses,small maybe,but really good business.and then that lead me to look for good businesses in Asia,and eventually for businesses with enduring competitive advantage with some long growth trajectory ahead.

　　后来，我开始更多地关注那些小而美的生意，而这一切都引领我去发掘在亚洲市场的好投资机会。最终，我找到了一些有持续增长与竞争优势的公司。

　　And so the places we& #39;re looking for value,evolves over time.But the basic philosophy has pretty much remained the same.It& #39;s just our core competence expanded over time.

　　我们寻找价值投资的重点，随着时间在不断演进，但背后的基础逻辑其实是永恒的，变化的是我们的核心竞争力在不断扩展。

　　Now I& #39;ve been very fortunate to be influenced at the very beginning by the investment giant,Buffett and Munger.And later on,I was really really lucky,and it was really just a stroke of luck,that you can& #39;t even make it up in fictions,that I strike a good connection with Charlie Munger,and became an investor in 2003 or 2004,and we& #39;ve been partners.Since then,basically,he has been a mentor,an investor,a business partner and a great friend all this years.

　　我特别幸运的是能够在职业发展早期就受到投资大师巴菲特和芒格的影响。后来的我更是非常非常幸运，获得了小说都不敢写的一系列眷顾——我得以和查理·芒格先生建立很好的关系，并在2003或2004年的时候，芒格先生成为了我的投资人，直到现在我们仍然是合作伙伴。不仅如此，除了投资人与商业伙伴，芒格先生也一直是我持续多年的良师益友。

　　And for many many years we& #39;ve been,we have dinner every Tuesday night.That& #39;s my version of a"Tuesday night with Charlie"every week(similar to"Tuesday afternoon with Morrie").That lasted for years until just right around the pandemic,and we talk a lot more.

　　多年以来，我们每周二都会共进晚餐，聊很多话题，这成为了我个人版本的“与芒格相约周二晚”。这一惯例持续了很多很多年，直到疫情来临。

　　So obviously I had a great deal of influence by him.But I have to say that the greatest influence from Charlie,was really beyond just the investment.He was more of a role model and the way he conducted himself in real life.Now,I think for every profession,everybody,it is wonderful to have models in life.And often we find role model among the eminent dead,because it is safer.

　　显而易见，查理·芒格对我影响至深。他对我最大的影响，其实远超投资领域。他的为人处世，一直是我的榜样和标杆。我认为每个人的生命里能有一个榜样是特别好的。通常我们会在逝去的大师里寻找榜样，因为这样更安全。

　　It is pretty risky to pick a role model who is still alive and there is always a risk of disappointment.But in my case,I got really really lucky in the sense that my role model never failed me and instead continued to inspire me right into his 97th year.

　　的确，寻找一个活着的榜样是有让自己失望的风险。但对我而言，我非常非常幸运。因为我的榜样在他97岁的人生中从不曾让我失望，并且还能一直激励我。

　　And so mostly it is really basically his attitude towards life and his ability to keep equanimity in a sense,in the face of ups and downs,successes or setbacks,and I witness quite a bit of them over the 17 years or so we& #39;ve been working closely,and to maintain that rational composure,common sensical approach to all problems,investment or life.That is extraordinarily hard.And it is a bit of,I guess,against every natural tendencies.

　　他对我的影响更多的是他的生活态度，面对生活的波澜而保持荣辱不惊的能力。在过去超过十七年的紧密合作中，我见证了他不少的起起落落，但他的生活哲学与能力，总能让他时刻保持镇定。不论面对任何困难，关于投资或者人生，要维持理性、逻辑和镇定是极难的，这多少有点反人性。

　　I& #39;ve really watched closely,up close and in person how Charlie had conducted himself and it is in their regard that he is probably the most influential person in my life.And I have been very,very lucky in that regard.

　　而我有这个殊荣能近距离地观察他是如何处事待人，的确非常幸运，我也受他影响最深。

　　2、李录和其他价值投资者之间有什么区别？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　But then what other dimensions do you do things differently today than other investors who are less successful?

　　你自己如何评估，相较于其他投资人或者价值投资者，你的投资方法有什么样的独特之处？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I don& #39;t spend my time study a hundred people doing that that way.We spend most of our time studying industries,studying specific companies.We& #39;re looking for the ones who are really successful,trying to answer what really makes them successful?Can that success be continued?

　　我其实不花时间研究其他投资者的是怎么做的，我们把绝大多数时间花费在研究行业以及其中特定的公司上。我们在寻找那些已经成功的企业，并找出他们真正成功的原因，以及这样的成功是不是可以延续？

　　And some of the time we have answers,and some of the time we don& #39;t,we just continue to really study them and continue edit until we have an answer.

　　有的时候我们能够找到答案，有的时候找不到。我们能做的只是持续地研究，学习，直到找到答案。

　　And then one thing that we need to bet is always important for us is this intellectual honesty.Basically knowing that we really don& #39;t know,what we do know and we don& #39;t.In other words if you claim a circle of confidence.You have to understand the ash of the confidence.You have to know what is false in what is close call.You have to be very honest with yourself.

　　有一点对于我们而言一直是非常重要的，就是“对知识的诚实”。说白了就是明白你知道什么和不知道什么。你要有一个能力圈，并且明白它的边界在哪。你必须要了解一家公司的优势在哪里，包括哪一些是可以预测的，哪一些是看不到的，你必须对自己保持这样的诚实。

　　So we really insist on knowing inside and out the particular businesses and to the point where we are able to predict its outcome,for example,in the next 10 years.At least I want to know at the worst case scenario,what the business would look like 10 years from now.That& #39;s what we do have a long term horizon in terms.We can& #39;t really predict that forever.But I want to see what I can predict with a very high degree of confidence in 90%of confidence that at a minimum with the business will look like in 10 years and then all different contingencies.

　　所以我们坚持要把一个生意的里里外外都了解得非常清楚，直到我们有能力预测它的发展。举个例子，我们至少希望了解在最糟糕的境遇下，一个公司十年后变成什么样？因此，我们可以说是具备了长期视野，虽然不可能预测得到永远的未来，但我们希望看到自己至少有90%的把握预测未来的十年里，在各种偶发事件之下，一个公司到底会发展如何？

　　And so and most of the time but we don& #39;t have an answer.We just keep studying and keep at it.And sometimes we study for years and years before you see.we really get it and then we will wait for price to come to our striking zone and a lot of the time they don& #39;t.And so that makes our selection very,very difficult.so when we do select them,we tend to really own them for very very long time.

　　绝大多数时候，其实我们并没有答案。我们只是持续地研究，学习。直到经过了多年不为人知的研究学习之后，我们会真正懂得其中的关键，并等待价格来到我们能买入的“击球区”。但很多时候价格并不在合适的区间，这让我们的选择变得非常非常困难。但一旦我们选择买入后，我们会很长时间地持有这些公司。

　　Because the business is where they are really good and we really fully understand and are very rare.And how do you mean when you really do you understand,so anything that we would own we would buy a lot more as they go down.

　　因为真正优质而我们又足够了解的生意是极其稀有的。当我们真正了解一家公司时，这意味着什么呢？这意味着任何我们选择持有的标的，当其价格下跌时，我们会持续购入。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　How do you start?

　　你们具体会怎样开始？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah,if they go,that& #39;s 50%is 60%of the brand we buy more.So that really gives you a measure of our definition of whether we understand them.

　　当价格下跌百分之五十甚至百分之六十时，我们会更大规模的增持。这样的举动，就是我们对一个公司是否足够了解的界定标准。

　　3、投资者应该是专才还是通才？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Do you prefer to be a generalist or a specialist investor?And would one work better in the Chinese market than the other?

　　作为投资者，你倾向于当一个通才还是专才？在中国市场做投资，哪一种能把投资做的更好？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well in a sense,you always want to be a generalist,uh,in terms of a student of businesses.And you’re interested,you know,you have to have to be good at this game,you have to have the innate intensive curiosity about the business,all kinds of businesses.It doesn’t mean you’re going to really get to the bottom of it.Oftentimes you don’t if you’re honest with yourself.

　　从某种方面来讲，作为学习商业的学生，最好是方方面面都有所了解，如果你想要做一个好的投资者的话，你必须要对各种各样的行业有着强烈的好奇心，这并不是说一定要对每个行业都要有非常透彻的了解。坦白地讲，这常常是做不到的。也很难对每个行业那么了解，我们还是要对自己诚实一些。

　　But by the time you really get into the companies you really decided to invest,you really better become a true specialist.And to the point you really know,hopefully better than anybody in the world you can find,including the top management team,the top management team,because they manage the company,they tend to be,uh deeply personally vested in their own biases,and may not be able to look at the business as objectively rationally as you do.

　　但是你一定要有这样的好奇心，当你决定投资一家公司的时候，你一定要成为这家公司的专才，要非常了解这家公司，要比世界上任何一个人都要了解这家公司，甚至比他们的高管更加了解，因为高管在日常管理工作中都会带上自己的认知偏见，有的时候可能身在此山中没有办法跳出来看。所以你必须要成为对于这家公司真正的了解，把你自己全身心的投入其中，这样你才能更加有信心的投资这家公司。

　　So that’s a really test,so you want to be a true specialist in the company you chose to really invest.But you want to be a generalist always of business in general.So that your core confidence,your circle of confidence constantly evolving and enlarging over time.

　　所以说，这真的很有挑战，就你要投资的个体公司而言，你应该是一个专家，但是对于整体的商业你要有广泛的认知，这样你的认知能力圈和核心竞争力才可以不断的拓展增强。

　　If I still really know what I knew when I started,when I first took your class,where would you first invest with,we will not really have anywhere near the results,and we both enjoyed，so luckily that,that we continue to expand,and we continue to learn.But on the other hand,it is a fascinating to see that how business evolved over the last few decades will continue to evolve in the next few decades and that really makes me feel that boy,I’m lucky to choose this field that I get paid to,really satisfy my curiosity and to learn from all these great people and great enterprises serving society,so I feel happy everyday doing what I do.

　　我在最开始学习和实践投资的时候，其实没有达到这样的程度，但是幸运的是我们一直在路上，一直在持续学习。这样的过程其实也是非常美好的，你可以亲历过去几十年商业社会的发展，并且在未来继续见证，这让我非常庆幸于自己对于投资职业的选择。这也是为什么我每天都很享受于工作的原因，我不仅获得财务回报，还满足了好奇心，还能跟各行各业的优秀人才学习。

　　4、新的投资者应该接受什么样的教育？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　OK,so in terms of value investing education you actually played a big role in promoting and advocating value investing from the books to actually underwrote this class that we talked about where I went to Beijing University,and I think it still survives.What’s your vision for the kind of education that a new investor should embrace and where that education might be available?

　　接下来想问问你关于价值投资领域的教育。其实你也在积极的倡导和支持价值投资的理论传播。包括你也一直在支持北京大学价值投资的课程。从你的角度看，对于新投资者来说，应该如何去学习和了解价值投资呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,first of all,thank you,Bruce,for come to teach at the Beijing University value investing class that my colleague Jin Chang and I started 6 years ago,and now is 6 years and still running,and running very well.And you have played an important role to that.

　　首先，非常感谢您曾来北京大学教授价值投资的课程。这门课程是我和我的同事常劲六年前发起的。现在六年时间过去了，课程进行的很好。

　　I think our original inspiration for that class was really based on pretty much your class.And your class is pretty much inspired and the continuation of the Ben Graham& #39;s class,and Graham and Dodd,and which had among others,Warren Buffett as a student,and I& #39;m your student.There will be many more,much brighter investors coming after us,and that& #39;s a good thing.So we& #39;re trying to do our part,to really to pass on the philosophy,the thinking,and the practical parts of value investing,to the next generation,in a sense.

　　您对于这个课程的设立其实有着至关重要的作用，因为这个课程设计的最初启发，就源于您在哥大的课程。您的课程是本杰明格雷厄姆教授经典课程的延续与传承。格雷厄姆教授的众多优秀弟子中，有巴菲特这样的著名学生；而我是您的学生。之后，会有更多更聪明的投资新星，将从我们这里继续薪火相传。这是一个好事情，所以我们尽自己的绵薄之力，把我们的想法、我们的认知以及我们在实践当中所学到的经验教授给新的投资者，教给下一代。我们希望尽自己的绵薄之力把我们的价值投资的理念、认知以及实践当中所学到的经验传承给下一代。

　　So,in terms of a younger student,when you started today,so I think a few things will be important.When I talk to young students and people who started out,trying to get into the field,I say several things that is important.

　　而对于年轻刚刚起步的学生来讲，应该考虑如下几个重要的点。这也是我一直给想进入投资领域的年轻人和年轻学生说的。

　　You need to always adopt a owner& #39;s mentality.And so I like to really ask a young student or an analyst at our firm basically to imagine,all of a sudden that one of your unknown uncle died and handed over 100%ownership to the company to you,and that& #39;s the business you are going to study,so any company,think of the starting point that way.And once you really,kind of,think on your own 100%that way,your mentality is totally different.

　　首先，你需要有一种所有人意识。我会经常问年轻的学生或者我们公司新的分析师这个问题：假设你有个从未谋面的远房叔叔突然去世了，他公司百分之百的的股权转交到了你的手上。这就是你需要去研究的公司，任何公司我认为都是要从这个起点出发去了解研究的。一旦你认识到你对一个公司有着全部的股权，你的心态会完全不一样。

　　So you never know that business existed,now you own 100%of it.You have no idea how to run it.You don’t know the people who will run it.What do you do?A lot of the things you know,you don& #39;t understand.You just know the facts,you don& #39;t understand it,but that& #39;s ok,you are gonna continue to learn,until you get 100%of it.

　　此前，你根本不知道这个公司的存在，但现在你却100%拥有了全部股权——虽然你还不知道如何经营这个公司，对它的管理团队也不了解。这种情况下，你会怎么做？你肯定是想方方面面的能了解多少就了解多少，有的时候你对拿到的信息不了解，没关系，你可以进一步的研究，直到你了解熟悉掌握。

　　And even if then,because of the constant change,you& #39;re gonna to continue to evolve you knowledge of it.Now if you adopt that mentality,study any businesses,you will have really started the process of becoming a real value investor.So that& #39;s the first thing.

　　即便是这样，因为事物都是在不断地变化的，所以你也要持续的研究和学习。现在，如果你能具备这样的所有人意识，再来研究任何的公司，你就能在价值投资者的道路上走得更好。这是第一点。

　　The second thing is you really want to maintain intellectual honesty and that is very very very important.You have to be really honest of what you know,what you assume,what you pretend unsubconsciously,and what you don’t know,how do you really know that.

　　第二点，你需要保持对知识的诚实的态度。知之为知之，不知为不知，一定要诚实，这一点非常非常重要。你必须诚实地面对自己所知道的，所假设的，潜意识里假装知道的，以及不知道的事物。你是怎么知道这些呢？

　　One of the things that Charlie have talked about that I think make the most sense is that I& #39;m never entitled to have a view,until I can find the smartest people on the planet who took the other side of that view and I can argue better that opposition than he does,and when I can do that,I would be entitled to have a view.Same thing applies to investing in a sense that,that intellectual honesty is a good life philosophy to begin with.It is critical,it is vital when it comes to investment.

　　查理·芒格曾经说过一个我认为很有道理的观点，除非我找到地球上最聪明的同时与我持有不同观点的人，并且能辩过他；否则我就无权发表观点。当我能做到这一点，我才有权拥有一个观点。理性诚实是很重要的人生哲理，在投资领域也是必不可少的。

　　Because as I said,the security market always exists to a point,to really to find your weaknesses,your dishonesty,your pretension,your bushy-mushy knowledges,and if you do not really possess that fundamental attitude of intellectual honesty,you& #39;ll be destroyed at some point during this,during your career by the financial market.It was always designed that way to catch you.

　　证券市场的存在几乎就是为了找到人的弱点，人的不诚实，人的自命不凡以及急躁而又糊涂的观点。如果不具备理性诚实的人生态度，那么你在职业生涯中的某个时候会被金融市场摧毁。金融市场几乎就是为攻击人性的弱点而设计的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Can I,can I say something about that,because It was better designed that way.Every time you buy a security,thinking it& #39;s going to do well,somebody else is selling you that security thinking it& #39;s going to do bad,and vice versa.And one of you is always wrong.So you better be sure that you& #39;re the one that& #39;s on the right side of that transaction.

　　我能说两句吗？我觉得金融市场要好于你认为的设计路径。每次你在投资的时候觉得这个股票绝对是好的才会买，但是卖方在卖出的时候肯定是觉得这个股票不行了才卖，反之亦然。所以其中一方肯定是想错了。所以你必须要确保在交易的买卖双方当中你是对的那一方。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,it is,there is some zero-sum aspect,but not always.

　　好吧，这里有一点零和博弈的味道，不过并不是每个交易都是这样的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Oh,no,it& #39;s a hundred percent zero-sum.The average return to all investors in any asset class and therefore in all all asset classes,is the average return to all those assets,it brings out...

　　不不不，我认为证券市场是百分之百的零和市场。任意资产类别中所有投资者的平均回报，也就是所有资产类别中所有投资者的平均回报，就是所有这些资产的平均回报。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I just take a slight different view,but I& #39;m never going to argue against my professors.

　　你的观点和我的有些不一样，但是我不会和您，我的教授争辩的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　I’m just gonna say…

　　我就是想说……

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Let’s just agree to disagree.That’s OK.It’s a fair point.It is a fair point.Another thing I would say is that you want to really devote as much time as possible to study the history of the businesses,and the history of the great businessmen in the past.The more you study more companies,the better you are when it comes to judgement on good opportunities and the judgment about fundamental characteristics of the company of interest.

　　在这个问题上，我们就保持各自不同的观点，求同存异吧。您讲的确实也很有道理。第三点就是要全身心的投入去研究这个公司的过往，包括成功的商人过去的一些历史经历。你研究学习的越多，你在决策的时候就判断的更准，更容易抓住好的机会，而且更加能够把握好你感兴趣公司的基本面特征。

　　And so,I say all three things are important:

　　1.to start with the 100%owner mentality,

　　2.to continue to train yourself to have a high degree of intellectual honesty,

　　3.and lastly to be really a thorough student of the history of the businesses.

　　All three things are really going to be very helpful if you are beginning to get into the field of investment or you want to really improve your game.So that& #39;s my advice to the students.

　　这三点都非常重要：

　　首先，要锻炼自己保持百分之百的所有人心态，

　　第二，一定要训练自己保持百分百对知识诚实的态度，

　　第三，一定要保持不断学习的心态，去彻底了解这个公司的过往和方方面面。

　　如果你刚刚进入到价值投资的领域，或者你纯粹就是为了提升自己的投资水准学习，所有这些都能够帮助到你。这就是我对年轻学生们的建议。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　That& #39;s good advice.I& #39;m not going to argue with that.

　　非常好的建议，我完全同意。

　　5、李录如何回顾看待自己过往的人生决策？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　When you look back over your own career,are there things that whether at Columbia Business School or in your career since then,you would have done differently that would have helped you get to where you are today sort of more quickly and more easily?

　　回望您个人的发展路程，包括在哥大学商学院以及后来的职业生涯，有没有什么事情你今天会做法不同的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah well,when I look back,I feel extraordinarily lucky and I feel nothing but gratitude.I feel lucky to accidentally stepped into Buffett& #39;s lecture at your class basically,at the first time he came.I feel extraordinarily lucky that when I got into the business and that I stroke up a relationship with Mr.Charlie Munger.I feel extraordinarily fortunate to live in a period of time when both the United States and China are going through a fundamental economic growth and provide enormous amount of opportunity that I happen to really know both markets well.And so,I look back at my career,I feel nothing but gratitude.

　　回看过去，我觉得自己超级幸运，并充满感恩：

　　我非常幸运地偶然在您的课上遇到了巴菲特先生，这还是他第一次来哥大演讲。

　　我非常幸运地进入投资行业，并和能和查理·芒格先生建立紧密的关系。

　　更幸运的是，我所在的时代，中国和美国都在经历着巨大的的经济增长，这样的发展也给我们带来了非常多的机遇，而我刚好对两边的市场都比较了解。

　　因此，回望过去的职业路径，我没有什么后悔的，我都是充满了感恩之心。

　　价值投资研究公司相关的方法

　　1、好公司的特点和估值方式

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,so in this concentration,in sort of now investing in great businesses,can you please specific about what kind of business you look for?What are the characteristics of a great business in particular?What detailed characteristics you look for?And how you put a value on those businesses?

　　你认为什么样的公司你认为是适合投资的好公司，他们有哪些具体的特性？其中，你重点会看的是什么？又会如何对这些公司估值呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah,well,great business are the ones who really have above average returns on invested capital.But that kind of a business that is actually attract imitators Competitors.Everybody wants to have above average return on reinvested capital,and so truly good business is the one who can fend off competitors,who can really have enduring competitive advantage and cap that higher than average return on invested capital and hopefully also have a long run-rate of continuous growth.Those are the businesses we are looking for,and they could really come in all industries in all shapes and forms.but they& #39;re rare they& #39;re really,really rare.

　　好公司的资本回报率（ROIC）一定是高于平均水平的。但是这样的业务，也会招来很多的竞争对手和模仿者，因为大家都想拿到超额的资本回报率。所以，真正的好公司其实是那些可以甩开竞争者，同时拥有可持续的竞争优势和较高资本回报率的公司，而且它还要能长期持续增长。这就是我们在找的好公司。他们会出现在所有的行业，有各样的形式，但的确非常的稀有。

　　To have a business generate above average returns over a long time on a compound fashion.Again,it really against the natural order of things.It& #39;s really only has a small slice of all business has belonged to that category.So if you really lucky enough to really find one of those long-term compounders,all we have to do is really to own them and own them for the longest period of time.Now it helps when you really buy them at the time when we& #39;re happen to be treated you know as a discount for intrinsic value so that if you were wrong about them,you won& #39;t lose money.And if you& #39;re right,you will have more returns over time.

　　因为能长期地产生高于市场的资本回报率，本身就不是常态。只有非常少的公司能属于此类。所以如果你能足够幸运的找到一家这样的公司，你需要做的就是长期持有它。

　　另外还有一点，如果你能在其价格低于其价值的时候买入，哪怕你对这个公司是不是好公司判断错了，你也不会亏钱。而一旦你的判断是对的，你会在长时间内获得更多的回报。

　　But over the longest period of time,if you do own them through the up and downs,your return roughly approximate basically the actual business return to the(actually)capital invested in the business itself over the long term.The two tend to really converge pretty closely.And so,understanding the study the nature of that business,the dynamic the competition is really the most important thing as the investor and as a student of the business.

　　当然在长期持有的时间周期内，你会经历各种起伏波折，你的投资回报近似于实际的商业运营中的资本回报。因此去了解和学习在动态竞争格局中的公司本质，是对于学习价值投资的学生与投资者来说最重要的事情。

　　And as I said,there isn& #39;t really a set of things,have really made them that way.Every business really build their fortress slightly differently,and you just have to really actually will be honest with yourself and study from every possible angles And to really convince that the ashen are currently enjoying,enjoying truly are enduring and they truly have a long runway ahead of them.And they truly have a long long way ahead of them.And if they prove to be exactly as you predicted over the years,we really want to stay on them through the up and down,thick and thin,not to be really dissuaded easily.

　　但是没有一个固定的模式让这些公司成为好公司。每一个公司建立核心竞争优势的方式都会有些许的不同，你只需要诚实虚心的让自己去学习每个可能性，去确定他们现在所获得的优势能长期保持。如果数年后你的判断被证明正确，你就能更坚定地在市场波动中持有这样的公司，而不受到动摇。

　　2、好公司获得持续竞争优势的因素有哪些？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,can I actually talk a little bit about those businesses?I mean,in limiting competition and I think Charlie Munger is the master at this,and they& #39;re really interested in moats.That is the barriers to entry into the business because it& #39;s keeping people out that& #39;s going to limit competition.

　　好的，我们继续深入讨论一下这个话题。查理·芒格先生是研究竞争优势护城河的大师。护城河其实是商业门槛，能让很多人难以进市场从而限制市场竞争格局。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah.

　　是的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　If you think about a moat,there are probably two elements about moats.So,think of it from a point of view of a company trying to get into the business.One is economies of scale.How big do you have to get,how big a market share do you have to capture in order to be viable as a competitor?So in automobile,that is the global automobile market,it& #39;s really large.And if you get 1 to 2%share,you& #39;re gonna be fine.In other markets like,for example,local distribution of carbonated soft drinks,you gotta get to 20 to 25%of the market to support the infrastructure that you need,and to compete.So,the first thing is the economies of scale.

　　谈到护城河，从一家公司试图进入这个行业的角度来考虑，可能有两个因素需要考虑，第一个因素是规模效应。你的这个公司要有多大的市场份额，才能够在市场中生存下去。

　　比如说像全球的汽车产业，如果一个公司能占有1%-2%的市场份额的话，它就可以活的不错；但其他比如说软饮的地方渠道商这样的领域，你需要获得20%-25%的市场份额才能在市场中生存下去。所以第一个竞争壁垒就是规模经济。

　　The second thing I think and again,I’m sort of thinking about Charlie Munger here,is how hard is it to get that market share?Which is all about customer captivity in a contested environment where unique technology will help you with that,and so on.

　　第二个因素，在这里我又一次想到芒格的观点，就是你获得这样市场份额的困难程度，这关系着竞争中，公司的客户粘性有多大，是否有相应的技术手段帮助提升客户粘性。

　　So,suppose you got to get to 25%share.We know for caffeinated soft drinks,that 0.2%share changes hands every year in a contested market.So,to get to 25%,you& #39;ve probably got a 125-year moat.Do you do a calculation like that for the companies you& #39;re looking at,you look at those two elements explicitly?

　　因此，假设你需要获得25%的市场份额，而我们已知软饮行业每年有0.2%的市场份额转手率，因此要达到25%，你可能需要125年去建立护城河。对于你所寻找的公司，你看这两个元素时，会做这样的计算吗？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　well,that and more.

　　我会考虑更多。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,then what& #39;s the more?

　　更多什么呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　The scale is important in there.Actually,there is a scale economy in those businesses,not everything actually have a scale economy.And so,sometimes that the scale becomes a contract point,make it actually more difficult to really manage,but in a scale economy,that the scale it does really become a competitive advantage.And then,but the dynamic would have changed after a certain scale,information automobile,that& #39;interesting example,you know what happens at different phases of the industry.

　　规模效应当然很重要。事实上，很多行业都存在规模经济效应，但也并不是每个行业都存在规模效应。有时候规模大了也有负面作用，让公司难以管理。但是有规模效应时，这当然会成为竞争优势。但公司到达一定规模时，市场的格局和潜力也会发生变化。比如刚才你提到的汽车行业就是个有趣的例子，这个行业在不同阶段的情况是不一样的。

　　The consumer side is also important in a sense,that if you have quite a bit of consumer addiction products,brand loyalty,obviously that is important.And they& #39;re good for a long time until they& #39;re not good.Things to change,new product categories would have come along and run,get tired and old,not refreshed.Need for new generations really don& #39;t like to have the same taste as their parents and grandparents.

　　同时，消费者的因素也很重要。如果你有足够有粘性的产品和品牌忠诚度，这就很有市场竞争力。这种优势可以持续很久，不过也可能在某天突然失效。对于新一代的消费者而言，他们的需求和父辈、祖辈很不一样，这就需要有新的品类来替代那些乏味、过时或者让人失去新鲜感的旧品类。

　　So,that& #39;s really the most interesting aspect of businesses,what is only constant,is the constant change.All great business changes over time.And I absolutely know business who can really remain that competitive edge forever,but some of the business really can keep it for very,very,very long time.

　　这就是商业最有趣的地方：唯一不变的就是变化本身。很少有公司能够长期或者永远的维持自己的竞争优势，但是有一些公司确实能做到。

　　And of course,when it changes,it is really upon the management team to be able to really reallocate capital towards those businesses.Actually now we enjoy a robust competitive advantage.Now take example with Berkshire,in a starting out as a lousy businesses,losing businesses,textile in New England,and Warren and Charlie& #39;s skills is that they took the last bit of the cash flow and skillfully invested in some other businesses,really on the right side of the trajectory.But over time,some of those businesses began to lose its competitive advantage,and then they took that capital and the allocate to the ones that.So,obviously management& #39;s capability of allocating capital also plays a very important role.

　　这需要管理层面临变化的时候，有能力应对变化，重新进行资本分配，从而有相对稳健的竞争优势。以伯克希尔哈撒韦公司举例，它起步于新英格兰一个亏损的纺织公司，巴菲特和芒格先生从那里起步，灵活的运用了最后一笔现金流，把它们重新分配和投入到正确的业务轨道上。随着时间的推移，公司有一些业务丧失了竞争优势，但是他们正确运用了资本，放到没有丧失优势的领域。所以，管理层运用分配资金的能力是非常重要的。

　　And of course that the culture of a company in the industry that& #39;s rapidly changing.So,then you& #39;re always a few step ahead of your competitors,which allows you to always observing on the edge that also becomes,enduring competitive advantage if that culture endures.

　　当然，公司有可持久的文化也很重要，这样能让你总能领先于竞争对手几步，从而总能立于潮头，成为有持久核心竞争力的公司。

　　So,in every specific businesses,what really make them successful are very,very different and they change over time,and so that is the most fascinating aspect,of the competitive dynamics and also the most fascinating aspect of being an investor.

　　总而言之，企业的成功各有不同，公司与竞争格局也总是在发生变化，而这也是让我作为一个投资者最着迷的地方。

　　3、李录在投资公司时考虑哪些因素？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　As of today,how do you do this differently?Would you say from most other investments,are there things that you look at specifically?Are there ways that you approach companies?Now I& #39;ll tell you the thing that when I started investing with you and I& #39;m honored to say that I earned a lot of money doing it,that appealed to me was what you mentioned in your introduction,which is small,the small businesses are,or small markets are necessarily markets,that we have to get a big share,because one firm can dominate and that& #39;s not something that most investors look at.So,in what other ways do you do things differently from most other value investors and investors?

　　你是怎样创造出今天这不凡成就的呢？挑选投资标的时，你会特别注意哪些方面呢？你是怎样研究解读公司的呢？其实我最早投资你的时候，最吸引我的地方就是在于你提到的小而美的公司或市场，在这些标的里我们必须要获得足够多股份，而这点不是大多数投资者所看重的。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah.Well,you& #39;re right.Well,you invested with me or you began to invest with me.Thank God.You& #39;re still with me.So,thank you for your continued to trust and confidence.No back then we were looking for a smaller business because of those the business,I feel I can understand them.And as we evolve,we began to look for bigger businesses.We can also understand that bigger business does come with a whole set of advantages that if they are right in a sense,and they also come in with a whole bunch of problems.

　　是的，首先很感谢教授您从最初到现在，都一如既往的支持与信任我。在当时，我们的确是专注于较小规模的公司，因为我更容易了解他们的商业模式。但随着我们的发展，我们也开始看一些我们能懂的更大型的公司。这些大公司如果路径正确，他们能有全盘的一揽子竞争优势，但同时也可能有着一系列问题。

　　And so,we& #39;re not really oaky,just big or medium or small size is one consideration,but it& #39;s not in the most important,certainly not a determining factor is when we& #39;re looking for businesses.

　　因此我们其实并不是用规模来定义我们所寻找的公司，它是一个判断因素，但不是最重要的。

　　They are big businesses because of a certain dynamics are still growing at a real bust to pace that it becoming even more entrenched as they become bigger and still have long runs with growth.So,that just exists.You know,the most recent phenomenal of the technology platform,because of the network and network effect,some of the business have fit in that characteristics.Now they don& #39;t necessarily always grow forever,but they have been growing for a long,long time and likely to continue for some time.And so,just the size itself,in certainly not the most determining factor by,yeah.

　　比如一些大公司，它们仍然能在较长时间保持着稳定增长，它们的护城河也在持续加固中。您知道的，现在的科技平台企业中，很多公司都符合上述特性。它们的确不可能永远增长，但是他们还能持续增长很长时间。而这就是为什么规模本身并不能成为最主要的决定因素。

　　4、投资中，如何看待公司管理层?

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　And how much is management the part of that?And how do you look for management to have that capability？

　　在选择公司的过程中，管理团队的分量是什么样的？你们如何找到符合预期的管理层呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well in a lot of the companies,the management will make big differences.The culture of those management will produce will make a big difference.

　　对大多数公司来说，管理层都会有巨大影响。不同的风格与文化，在同一公司会产出完全不同的结果。

　　But in a small set of experiences,management really matters almost nothing.Best the strengths of business itself,really has a dynamic of its own that really almost anybody can run it and run it well,relatively.Now those businesses are really rare,not that many.Can probably put them in one hand or two hands.

　　但我也遇到极少数例子，管理层对业务的影响可以忽略。这样的公司的长项就是他们有一套自己的运营体系、极具生命力，几乎任何人都能管理和经营，并且做得相对不错。不过这样的公司凤毛麟角，一两只手就能数得过来。

　　And so each again I come back to the situation.Each time is different.You have to really look for each specific company.That company in specific ways and ask all kinds of appropriate questions and study them over long period time in order to really honestly say that you actually understand them,understand them enough(that)you can predict the outcome in 10 years even given all the up and downs in the macro environment.

　　再回到如何做投资决策这个话题。每一次决策都有独特性。你必须具体公司具体分析，花足够长的时间仔细研究所有相关问题，直到真的弄懂它们。这样就算未来环境跌宕起伏，你也能够预测出这个公司未来10年的前景如何。

　　对宏观市场环境的分析与评论

　　1、市场今天的情况像过往当中的哪一个阶段呢？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay.So,what about the market today?I mean it seems highly valued.I mean if you look at fixed income,it seems unprecedented.That said does the market today remind you of any historical periods you& #39;ve lived through in good ways or bad,and you have advice for anybody on how to navigate?

　　你怎么看待现在的市场情况？这看上去是一个估值过高的市场。比如固定收益目前是史无前例的高。回顾你投资道路上所经历的历史周期，现在的市场情况是否让你想到过去某一个好的或者坏的时期呢？如何在这样的市场中正确决策，你有什么心得与方法？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,we,we usually don& #39;t study too much about the market except when they& #39;re really treat.And this is a happens to be one of them is more extreme period of time.It is truly,in many ways that we& #39;re in unchartered territories,the monument quiddity of this being printed,the level of interest rate,and also the slow pace of the growth.All of those are quite really remarkable in this period of time.So,how do you really deal with them?

　　其实我们并不会过度研究宏观市场，除非整个市场真的变得非常极端。而现在，我们的确处在一个面临各种未知的极端时期。市场的流动性、利率水平、以及经济的增速放缓都使得现在市场变得极端。我们如何应对呢？

　　We don& #39;t necessarily think that history will repeat.And so,every time it& #39;s slightly different instead of guessing the patterns of history and whether they repeat,we focused on selecting companies that can really lift through the thick and thin.Whatever the environment,business will continue,somebody will do well.We just won& #39;t really have in those companies,because they& #39;re capable of dealing with those extraordinary set of uncertainties,and they& #39;ll be doing fine.

　　我们其实不认为历史会重演。每一个时期都有各自的不同。与其猜测历史规律的重复性，我们更愿意专注于挖掘和选择能跨越周期的公司。不管是什么样的环境，总有公司会活下去，总有人能活的很好。我们只需要去投资这些有能力应对极端不确定性的公司就好。

　　2、如何应对环境的危机?

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　So,you& #39;ve lived through in your 23 years running MLA of a number of major financial crisis,the Asia crisis in& #39;97,the tech bust in 2000,the financial crisis in 2008.And actually last year the COVID-19 situation.Are there specific things you learn about managements or companies that you look for in those crises?

　　你掌舵喜马拉雅资本已经23年，也引领它安然度过了1997年的亚洲金融风暴、2000年的互联网泡沫、2008年的金融危机以及2020年的新冠疫情。在这样危机下，对于标的公司或者管理团队，哪些事情是你关注和寻找的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,so as you said,in my 24 years of managing Himalaya Capital,we have gone through several of those big crisis.Each time when that happens,it was as built as once in the century crisis.

　　正如你所言，喜马拉雅的24年中，我们经历了几轮大的经济危机。

　　It probably was,except it happens on the timeframe about every 5 to 10 years.So,the financial market boom and bust has been a constant phenomenon since the beginning of the financial market several hundred years ago.And also driven by human nature.As long as human nature remains that way it will never change.It will always be with us.Now as a product of evolution,we human are basically run not necessarily in a very rational way.Now we& #39;re very good at rationalization,but we& #39;re not very good at being rational.

　　几乎每5-10年，就会发生一次这种世纪大危机。因此，从百年前金融市场起步阶段开始，泡沫的诞生、增长与破灭其实一直在这个市场持续发生。而这是由人性导致的，人性是永远不会改变的。作为进化的产物，人性不是理性构建的。我们可能擅长对事物进行合理化分析，但是并不擅长于保持理性。

　　So,we always are looking for it.In a sense we& #39;re governed by some set of hard wired,hard coded instincts.And looking for a zero sum and we& #39;re looking for fast money and they& #39;re really totally scared when things goes against you.So,that& #39;s basic sense of greed and fear.We will always enjoy a drive,a financial market up and down.Particularly when it comes to money,humans are very funny.It tends to evoke a primal part of human nature.

　　因此我们常常追求理性。在某种意义上，我们是受一系列隐秘的有关联性的本能所支配的。因为贪婪与恐惧，我们会追求零和博弈与快钱，而当进展不利时我们也会害怕。正是我们驱使了金融市场的起伏，面对金钱时，人类是可笑的，因为金钱总能激发人性最原始的一面。

　　And so,particularly relates to financial market and security market money that that human tendency of the extreme instincts become more amplified and more extreme.And that& #39;s why the financial market from the very beginning has always been characterized by boom and bust.And will remain so.

　　因此，具体到金融证券市场，人性的极端性会被放大到更加极致的状态。这就是为何金融市场的起伏周期从初始就长期存在，且永恒持续。

　　And how do you to deal with such an environment that will be constant?One way to deal with that is to anticipate that always on the corner,at all times.And that& #39;s basically our attitude,that financial crisis will happen all the time.People will always be driven by fear,by euphoria,by this extreme kind of ups and downs.And so,we& #39;re looking for businesses that are capable of living through that.And even businesses that could really thrive in that environment.In a sense have a certain characteristic of anti-fragile.

　　我们该如何应对市场的起落呢？一个办法是意识到市场波动随时都有可能发生。这也是我们所抱持的基本态度。首先，我们要认识到，金融危机随时都可能爆发，因此我们需要寻找的就是那些有韧性，能应对市场周期，甚至在危机中还能茁壮发展的标的公司。某种意义上，这些公司拥有反脆弱的特质。

　　And so,that up and down becomes somewhat friendly for us in the sense,that when our favorite company is on sale in a discount it by 50,60,70%,if we have money,we& #39;ll buy more of it.If we don& #39;t have money,it is a hallmark of being a good investor.You can sit through and watch your portfolio down by 50%and not be effected at all.

　　如此一来，市场起伏反而对我们比较友善。因为当你青睐的公司，受市场环境影响，价格下跌50%，60%，70%时，如果我们有钱，我们将可以增持更多；而如果我们没有更多的钱，这个市场环境就是优秀投资人的试金石——你是否可以远观你所投的公司股价跌掉50%而巍然不动并挺到最后。

　　On the other hand,the other side of the coin is that you& #39;re equally unaffected when everybody around you are making fast money,fast and furious,a lot of them.And you& #39;re really seemingly totally left behind.And so that& #39;s really part of the temperament that most people don& #39;t have.And that& #39;s why not everybody can succeed in this game of investment.

　　另一方面，当周围所有人都在赚快钱的时候，你貌似会被他们远远的抛在身后，如何仍能不被影响是大多数人不具备的性情。然而，这样的性情以及对人性的认知是做好投资所需要的。这也是为何不是每一个人在投资博弈中都能成功的原因。

　　And so,to succeed in this game requires a certain temperament.And a certain understanding of human nature.Also,a certain common sensible approach.And knowing that your investment return eventually will mirror the actual business return by actual businesses.And you know in real life,real businesses don& #39;t really change by day,by hour,by week,by months.It took years for them to really either go up or down.And so,you should expect your investment result to come in over slowly gradually over a long period of time.So,the short-term phenomena should not really impact you as much,either on the up or on down.

　　想在投资场取得成功，得具备一定的品性、了解人性、具备常识的判断能力。我们知道投资回报最终是由公司的实际业务回报所决定的。我们也知道，公司业务其实不会在短时间内有大的变化，它需要数年时间去获得增长或逐步衰退。因此，投资人对投资回报的周期预判其实应该是缓慢、长期且循序渐进的。短期的一些起伏其实并不会影响我们的投资。

　　And so,if you have that basic temperament and basic approaches,what you& #39;re going to find is that both the euphoria,as well as the crash,actually can serve you well.And this is really going back to Ben Graham& #39;s basic concept of Mr.Market that it is there to serve you,not to instruct you.Except in real game of the investment,those phenomenon,those on the up and down,tend to be quite extreme and testing.

　　如果你有这样的抗干扰个性与基本方法论，其实你会发现市场的疯狂和暴跌仍可以把你服务的很好。这其实就回到了格雷厄姆先生关于市场的基本理论-市场是来服务你，而不是来指导你的。这些市场乱象与起伏，的确会让投资变得非常的极端与困难。

　　And so,the other thing that will be very testing is that we really do need to understand the business itself.

　　而另一个困难的事情是，我们需要能真正地理解公司。

　　And if you really try to pretend you understand,and you& #39;re really driven by something else other than deep understanding,you will be tested.And so,that& #39;s the salient nature of the financial market.I sometimes almost feel that they exist to really to catch human weaknesses.That if you really don& #39;t understand something that you& #39;ll pretend to,you will be busted at some point.But if you truly understand,you will be able to add when the security really down 50,60,70%…

　　如果你假装了解一个公司，那你投资的依据就不来自于对公司的深度了解，而这么做，迟早会让你陷入困境。市场会考验人性的弱点，如果你不懂装懂，投资的泡沫总会在某天破裂。反之，如果你真的懂，你就有能力在价格低点不断地加仓，从而获得超额收益。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Yeah.Can I actually talk a little bit about a specific example there and maybe get you to talk about an example?Because one of the things that you talked about was the stability of these companies and their managements in the face of a crisis.

　　我先抛砖引玉，然后你来举出一个具体案例好吗？因为刚刚你也讲到了公司经营的稳定以及管理层应对危机的能力等。

　　So,a crisis tells you a lot.And the one company that obviously recently has done extremely well,and you could see it,is John Deere.So,if you looked at John Deere in 2000,demand fell by 5%and their profit margins fell to zero.If you look at what happens to them in& #39;13,& #39;14,demand falls 35%,and their profit margin stays at roughly half of what it was before,which is higher than it had been historically.So,clearly that& #39;s a company that& #39;s changed.And in the face of sort of catastrophic,external conditions,has gone from doing quite badly to doing much better.Do you have examples of that from the companies you& #39;ve invested in,where you& #39;ve seen them perform through a crisis?

　　其实危机可以给我们很多启示。近年来有一个公司在危机中做的很好，你可能也有看到，是John Deere。如果你在2000年看这家公司，他们的收入跌了5%，同时利润几乎跌到零点。而13和14年，他们收入更是跌了35%，但是利润率却高于任何历史时期。因此很明显，这个公司做出了一些改变。在面临极端危机时，人们也能让自己越做越好。你是否可以分享你投资过的公司案例，它们是如何自如地应对危机的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I do.My 27,28 years of investment,that& #39;s the kind of things you would collect,but normally we don& #39;t talk about specific companies.

　　确实，在我做投资的27、28年里，碰到过不少公司应对危机的经历，但通常我们不会讨论具体公司。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　But could you share maybe a historical experience of that so that the students in the audience might have a sense of what to look for in looking for this stability?

　　那能不能跟我们分享一下相应的经验，关于如何寻找有稳定性的公司。好让商学院的学生们能更具体地理解你所说的这种稳定性。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,Bruce,we tried this multiple times in your class.I’m not going to change.

　　哈哈，布鲁斯，我们曾经在你的课堂上进行过多次这样的拉锯，我不会谈具体案例的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　I know.This is very familiar to me.

　　确实，这种对话我再熟悉不过了。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　And there is a simple logic reason why we don& #39;t do that.Once you achieve a certain notoriety in a certain field that people tend to really copy that.And that& #39;s not the behavior we want to encourage.Instead giving people fish,it& #39;s much better to really teach people how to fish.

　　为什么我们不具体分享案例，这背后其实有一个非常简单的逻辑。一旦你在某一领域有所建树和名气，人们就会竟相模仿，但我们并不鼓励这样。所谓授之以鱼，不如授之以渔。

　　3、如看待亚洲尤其是中国市场？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Well,Okay.So let& #39;s talk about the evolution of markets and in particular at a 2010 panel at Columbia Business School,you mentioned that Asia& #39;s role in the global financial system was becoming increasingly important.Looking back,how has Asia& #39;s role evolved in the last 10 years?And what about China& #39;s role going forward in both the world& #39;s business economy and in the financial?

　　好的，我们再来讲一下市场的变化。我记得2010年你在哥大商学院的一次分享上提到，亚洲对于全球金融体系会变得越来越重要，那么现在回头看，你认为过去十年亚洲市场是如何成长的；向后展望，未来的十年，中国市场在全球经济，特别是全球金融市场的重要性会有什么样的变化？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　The world is turned out exactly as we predicted,Asia,indeed become a lot more important,particularly China in it becomes even more important.As I look at in the next few decades,I would say that the Chinese market and Asia in general will become even more important.The set of dynamics that are already set in place will continue to play off in a robust way.So,the Chinese security market in general and Asia economy that will become increasingly a very,very important,evermore important component of the global market.

　　正如我们预测的，亚洲市场的确越来越重要，特别是中国。展望未来，整个亚洲市场，特别是中国市场，会持续变成全球金融体系中越来越重要的一部分。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Well,alright.So let me give you some data that I don& #39;t think this five-year appreciate it.I mean,the Chinese numbers are obviously very difficult to interpret,at least the official numbers.And whenever you see that from a company,the data you really want to look at is the date where there& #39;s a reliable counter.And the trade data is where there& #39;s a reliable counterparty because every Chinese export has to be an import from another country.And every Chinese import has to be an export from another country.

　　好，那我来给你一组数据，这5年的情况跟你的预测向左。我的意思是，撇开中国（官方）数据的不可考证，进出口贸易的数据就无法造假，因为中国的出口额一定是另一个国家的进口额，反之亦然——就如同你观察一个公司的数据时，也会希望得到的是一个经过严格审计的结果。

　　Over the last 8 to 10 years,China trade has grown by only about 2.5%a year.That& #39;s less than 1%faster than U.S.trade.What does that say about Chinese growth?I mean,that& #39;s clearly much slower than the trade growth prior,say to 2010,2011.And it& #39;s fluctuated obviously.But if anything,it& #39;s slowing down.What does that say about China& #39;s future?

　　好的。我这里有一些关于中国市场的数据。在过去的8-10年，中国的贸易每年仅有2.5%的增长，这个比美国的贸易增长速度仅仅快不到1%，如何解读这个增长速度？我想说的是，这个增速对比2010年和2011年的时候要低很多的，而且很波动起伏，并且整体增速放缓，这对中国未来的经济发展意味着什么？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,it tells you that the characteristic of the Chinese economy has changed fundamentally.You know,up until 10 years ago,what really propels the Chinese growth is,has been,was international trade to a certain extent.And I would say back in 2010,the net trade,meaning the export/import netted out was roughly about 9%of GDP.And so,China& #39;s economy was heavily dependent on the global market.

　　我觉得这意味着中国经济发生了根本性的改变。十年以前，中国的经济增长的驱动力主要是国际贸易。2010年左右的时候，进出口贸易额占到中国GDP的9%，因此当时的中国经济十分依赖于国际市场。一度中国成为全世界最大的贸易国，每年都有着两位数的增长速率，远远高于世界其他经济体的的增长速度。

　　Now what happened is that,and they were growing at really double-digit growth.At the time of when the rest of the global economy was growing at much,much less a fraction of that.And so,at a certain point,once you become the largest trading nation,you can& #39;t really had the rest of the world wouldn& #39;t be able to keep up.

　　接下来发生的，中国经济以真正两位数的速度在增长。而同期世界的其他经济体则增速缓慢。因此，某种意义上讲，一旦你成了最大的贸易国，就不能再要求世界其他地区和你脚步一样。

　　And the other thing that is happening is after the citizens become middle classes,their demand changes from basically just work,saving,into really work and saving and consume.And it just also human nature.So,roughly around 10 years ago,as you point out,the Chinese economy has slowly evolved into more of a consumer-driven economy.

　　另一方面，另外，中国的发展让很多人成为了中产阶级，因此他们的需求也发生了变化，他们生活中的重点从工作和存钱，转变为了工作，存钱，还有消费，这就是人性的体现。生活好了以后，消费需求会随着生活条件变好逐渐提升。因此，正如你所指出的，过去十年中，中国的经济从贸易导向慢慢变成了消费拉动的市场。

　　To the point that interestingly,last year was a watershed year in a sense that the retail sales,the total volume of retail sales for the first time overtaken United States.China was the largest retail market in the whole world at a 6 trillion US dollars.The U.S.is roughly 5.5 trillion now.Granted that was a special year in the sense that a global pandemic ahead other countries harder than China,that& #39;s also said that China has done a better job in managing the pandemic.

　　有趣的是，去年是一个分水岭。中国的商品零售总额首次超过了美国，以6万亿美元的消费额跃居世界第一消费市场。同期，美国大概是5.5万亿美元。当然，去年是个特殊时期，疫情对其他国家的影响比中国大，这也说明中国在疫情控制方面做得更好。

　　But basically the trend is there.China is emerging to become the most dynamic,fastest growing consumer market in the whole world.And that is likely to continue for many,many more decades to come.So,that really make China even more attractive to the global economy in terms of people who want to sell it back to the consumers for the middle class in China.And the characteristic of the economy would change and would also really provides unique and interesting opportunities for global investors.

　　但基本的趋势已经非常明显了。中国市场正快速成长为全球最具活力、增长最快的消费市场。这个趋势在未来几十年仍将持续，因此中国的市场和中产阶级消费群体对全球来说是非常有吸引力的，而这也将改变中国经济的性质，为全球投资者提供了重要且独特的机会。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Let me just talk a little bit about that.I mean,the thing about retail sales is that it& #39;s selling goods.The thing about the developed economies is that they& #39;re overwhelmingly service economies,they& #39;re not goods economies.And on that dimension,it doesn& #39;t look like China& #39;s doing particularly well.And as I say,the export data,you could understand that that would slow down.But the fact that the import data has slowed down just as much or more tells you something about the nature of domestic growth in China.What about the challenges in the service sector in China?

　　我也想在这点说两句。比如说零售，零售无非就是卖东西。而发达国家都是服务型的经济为主体，而非商品型经济为主体。从这点看，所以中国在服务型经济上做的并不好。而从数据上看，虽然你能解释中国的出口为何放缓，但进口的数据其实也放缓了许多，这是否也反映了中国的国内增长状况，在服务领域，中国面临的挑战如何？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,you& #39;re certainly right that at the current stage,the service sector has yet to become as powerful and dominant as mostly matured,developed economies in the West.And that& #39;s really a biased view set of opportunities for the decades ahead of them.And that& #39;s,by the way,not that much different than all the other developed economy.At a comparable station,the development of state at the$10,000,$11,000 capital GDP,which is where China is today.

　　你对中国经济当前阶段的判断确实是对的。现在中国的服务产业尚未同西方发达国家一样形成经济主导，而这其中也蕴藏着未来几十年的一系列机会。顺便说一下，在这一点上看，中国和其他所有的发达国家的路径是相似的。中国正处在当年美国人均GDP 10,000-11,000美元的发展阶段。

　　But even look at the underlying dynamics of various different businesses,different performance,both consumptions,retailers and the service are basically the ones that are growing the fastest.And overall,trade internationally is still growing at a robust rate,but not nearly as much as the domestic side of the economy.And so,that& #39;s why that their share of the GDP has gradually began to shrink.So,domestic consumption becomes a far more important,both goods and the services as you point out.So,that just tells you that a different stage of the economy where it is today.

　　但是即便是不同商业的潜在动力，消费、零售和服务都是增长最快的。总体来看，中国的国际贸易仍然在稳健发展，但是没有国内经济增长率高。因此，这就是为什么进出口贸易在中国的GDP比重逐渐收缩，而消费和服务成为更加重要的部分，这是中国现在的独特发展阶段所导致的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　So where do you see the unique challenges and opportunities instead of finding value investment opportunities in China?

　　那么，你觉得在中国做价值投资的独特机遇和挑战都是什么？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,China remains,I think,one of the best market,if you were a value investor,in many sense.In a sense the market is still somewhat underdeveloped.The market today is not as representative as the real economy the way,for example,United States looks.And so there& #39;s a lot of under development in that regard.And the trading and the investors are still not as mature.And there is still a mentality of a faster trading high turnovers,which actually render some of the companies,again,going through a faster pace of this boom and burst.

　　如果你是一个价值投资者，中国仍然是全球最好的市场之一。尽管它仍然是一个发展中的市场，不能代表实体经济。现在还不是特别的成熟。今天这个市场的路径其实跟美国是不太一样的，市场的交易和投资者其实都仍然不够成熟，很多人的心态还是在于高频交易和高周转率，这使得其中的一些公司会以更高的速度经历泡沫的诞生与破灭。而同时，这也给真正成熟有耐心，真正懂得市场的投资者很多机会。

　　Again,that usually provides opportunities for those mature patient investors who truly know what they& #39;re doing.And also,as you said,in the service sector of the economy,when it comes to financial services,is still yet to be developed.And China was really right at this stage in the financial services industry actually,is about to take off in a big way for many reasons.And it just so happens,also the Chinese government is quite keen in making macroeconomic policies quite conducive for the development of the financial service industry.And they began to open up to the global firms as well,in a way they& #39;ve never done that before.So all those confluence of factors really make the market that much more attractive today than it was before.

　　服务领域中，金融服务在这个阶段就有着很大的发展空间。这其中有很多的驱动力。中国政府一直很敏锐的制定一系列利好的经济政策来促进金融服务市场的发展。中国金融市场现在也前所未有地开始对海外机构更加开放，这些因素都让这个市场比以往更具吸引力。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Yeah.Can I say something about that?Financial services is probably the fifth and sixth largest service sector.The biggest is housing by far.The second biggest is medical care.The third biggest is education.And the fourth and fifth biggest are like wholesale and retail distribution and personal services and then financial services,although in the U.S.It& #39;s a little higher than that.What about those sectors in China?

　　是的。我可以继续聊聊这个问题吗？在我看来，金融服务可能是全球第五或第六大服务产业，最大的仍是住房，第二大是医疗，第三大是教育，第四和第五应该是批发零售和个人服务，之后就是金融服务，不过在美国它的排名可能会更靠前。这些领域在中国的机会如何呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　That sector is also growing.

　　这些行业也在增长。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Right.Do you see oppotunities in...

　　那你看到哪些机会了吗？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Absolutely we do.We see opportunity basically.Virtually every industry are going through a robust growing stage,some more than the others.And even if the industry,they& #39;re not growing as fast,you can still find interesting companies,values,and I don& #39;t have to.You are the Google for this field.So,different people tend to focus to different aspect of the industries and different aspects of the growth profile.Some looking value and high growth companies,some looking values at moderate growth companies.Some look value in places that doesn& #39;t grow at all.In fact,they probably declining and therefore they find even bigger markets.

　　当然有很大的机会。本质上，每一个产业都在经历稳健增长，有些可能增长的更快。即便一个行业增长的没有那么快，但是其中也有一些有趣的公司和价值，这里我就不详述了，您是专家。所以，不同的投资者，都有着不同的市场关注角度，对公司成长阶段的偏好也不同，有一些更关注高成长性的公司，有些是看一些比较缓和增长的公司，有一些甚至倾向于没有在增长甚至在萎缩的公司，这样他们能获得更好的议价空间。

　　So,if you are a true,good investor in that sense,you can find value everywhere.But you will probably more capable of finding values in dynamically growing economies,such as China.They& #39;re still growing at multiple times of the mature economy in the West.And there& #39;s still enormous market inefficiency in this security market.So that combination of those two really make it enticing.On top of that one,whole series of government report,I mean good government reform,will make those inefficiencies gradually be more efficient.And so that transition offers even more interesting opportunities.So this is a good time for global investors,and certainly for U.S.investors as well.

　　所以，如果你是一个好的投资人，你可以在任何地方找到价值，特别是在中国这样的充满活力且快速增长的经济体中。中国的证券市场仍然有着大量的低效率的市场空间，这让投资中国市场更加让人激动。除此之外，还有大量的政府改革措施会让这些低效空间逐渐变得高效，这将带来更多的市场机会。因此对全球，特别是美国的投资者来说，这是一个很好的时机去投资中国。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay.In those terms that as Chinese financial markets are developing,do you have certain reforms or other things you& #39;d be interested in seeing implemented?You sort of have a top development that you& #39;d like to see happen in the China financial markets or even in the China economy?

　　好的。中国的金融市场确实是在不断发展。针对中国金融市场或者整体经济的改革措施和市场的变化中，哪些是你期望出台执行的或者想看到的？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,in a sense,it was already happening.This is what I mean that the Chinese government regulator has been very keen to develop the security market.For years and years the Chinese security market is not very representative of the Chinese economy,partially because it really,well,the IPO rules are based on what they call approval model.You have to go through lenses of approval layers of approval process in order to be listed.And so the ones who are listed are the ones who may be approved by government for whatever reason,sometimes often not really market driven.

　　我觉得很多都已经在发生了。中国的政府和监管机构是很乐于发展证券市场的。在过去很长时间，中国的证券市场其实并没有能够很好的代表中国的经济，主要的原因是IPO的上市规则是审批制的——你需要一层一层的通过监管机构的审批然后才能上市。那些成功过会上市的公司由政府全权审核，有时候不完全是市场驱动型的公司。

　　Compared with other markets,such as the United States,that it is based on registration-based.So as a market-driven,as a result of the financial market,a security market,here are quite representative of the true economy.As the Chinese economy moving from an export import driven economy into more of consumer demand economy,entrepreneurial companies with the market driven dynamics are increasingly playing a larger role.

　　对比其他的市场，比如美国市场的注册制，更多是市场驱动。因此作为金融市场的核心，美国的证券市场是足以代表美国经济的。随着中国经济从进出口贸易驱动，转变为消费驱动，市场驱动为核心的民营企业逐渐发挥着越来越大的作用。

　　And therefore,this financial market have to reflect the changing dynamics and the Chinese government is determined to reform its IPO process from one of approval process model into one that is much like United States of registration-based model.And so we are probably still early in that process.But as that process began to play out,we& #39;ll see the finacial market become more reflective of the real economy.

　　因此，金融市场需要反映这样的市场变化，也因此中国政府非常有决心调整IPO的上市规则，从以前审批制，转变为更像美国注册制IPO的程序。现在还是属于比较早的一个阶段，随着规则调整的深入，我们将可以看到这个市场更好的反应真实的经济情况。

　　And the other big changes that is happening is that most of the financing are done through the banking sectors up to the point,80 plus percent.And over time,in the financing is best to really do through what they call direct financing,mostly through market driven dynamics of fixed income,equities,etc.We see the overall financing model,the Chinese economy from one that is more indirect into more direct,and so this is the reason for opening up this financial service industry,both for domestic players and global players.As we& #39;re seeing that dynamic plays out over the next decade or so,there will be a lot more opportunities.And the financial market will become more mature and there will be more institutional players coming into it.The financial market size will become much,much bigger than what it is today.Those are really all bode well for investors who truly understand what they& #39;re doing basically in China.

　　另外一个正在发生的改变是在融资领域，目前很多的融资行为都是通过银行业操作的，可能要达到80%左右，但是随着时间的推移，直接融资越来越多，这是主要由市场驱动的融资渠道，涵盖固定收入投资，证券投资等多种形式。我们会看到总体中国的金融模式慢慢从间接越来越多的转到直接融资模式，而这也是呼应中国的金融服务业对中外机构的进一步开放，同时对于未来几十年来说，中国市场的逐渐成熟和发展，都意味着更多的市场机会。中国金融市场的机构投资者将会越来越多，市场将越来越大，对于那些真正了解中国市场的投资者是极为利好的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Now,let me ask another question in that connection.I mean,the thing about a service economy is that services are overwhelmingly locally produced and consumed.There are very few global universities,for example,there are very few global high schools,very few global hospitals.That means that typically if you look at developed economies like the United States with big service sectors,the firms which tend to be local,the service firms that tend to be local,tend to be locally financed.So I assume you know that local banks in the United States are much more profitable than the big global banks.Do you see a comparable trend developing in China that you can take advantage of?

　　让我再问一个与此相关的问题。我的意思是，服务业有一个特点就是绝大多数都是本土生产提供的。比如，跨国的大学、高中或者医院是很少的。比如说美国的主要服务业领域，那些公司都是趋于本土化的，包括资金也都本土化。我估计你是知道的，美国的本地运营的银行比大的国际银行的利润率要高很多，你在中国市场，是否看到了这样类似的趋势以及其中蕴含的机会呢？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Some yes and some no.I wouldn& #39;t say that the local banks in the US is...

　　某些方面，可以这么说，但也不能这么定义。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　No,I& #39;m just thinking in terms of local experts within China and local service businesses,that would include of course,local banks.

　　我的意思是针对那些中国本土的服务领域的公司，当然包括银行。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yeah,well,they tend to really know the local area.But the Chinese regulation banking is slightly different.So there are only roughly about 15 banks that really have the mandate of being able to take deposit on a national basis.And all the other,rest of the financial institutions are able to really take deposits in a very,very small,well-defined local region,whether a town,or villages,cities,etc.It is a heavily,heavily regulated businesses,and so that really gives them almost an oligopoly type of a status in term of taking deposit,which is very important,of course,in terms of the source of capital.So that dynamic is a slightly different than the United States,for example.

　　但是中国的银行监管是有些许不太一样的。中国的银行体系是一个高度监管的市场，可能只有大概15个左右的银行有全国范围吸收储蓄的资质，而市场的一些其他金融机构都只能在非常小的地区，非常明确的领域内吸收储蓄。因为这样的限制下，那些有资质的银行的地位是非常特殊的，他们在吸收资金的方面上有很大的优势。这块跟美国的情况是有所差别的。

　　That the license ability to really be able to open the bank is much,much more relaxed in the United States than in China.As a result,basically the dynamics of the larger national versus local or regional banks and other financial institutions,are more driven by basically the business dynamics and market dynamics.This is very different than in China,it is driven first and foremost and by regulation regime.So that makes the comparison of the banks really quite different in China than the United States.

　　在美国你想开一个银行拿到牌照比中国要容易得多，这样的话选择更大的全国性质的银行还是区域性的银行和金融机构，更多的是取决于商业本身，而非市场的动态与环境影响。但是在中国，银行的竞争不仅在于市场状况，监管的影响是最重要的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　So would somobody investing in banks in China has to be an expert in Chinese regulation?

　　那么想在中国投资银行业，投资者是否要成为中国监管系统的专才？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Absolutely.

　　必须的。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Specialist.

　　成为专才。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　If you don& #39;t decide to team us anything,I recommend you& #39;d best become the most knowledgeable specialist on the planet before you& #39;re really interested really invest in all them through the ups and downs and thicken things.And if you do understand them,they are good.It is far more profitable to own them over the long period of time.

　　对，如果你想投资一个领域的话，在你真的感兴趣和投资之前，我建议你最好要成为这个行业和领域里全世界最了解它的人。如果你能真的懂它们，并且你找到的是一个好公司，它能给你在很长时间里带来非常可观的回报。

　　But in terms of the transition from the US to China,so I think a lot of people such as myself included went through a period of time to really try to understand the nature of the Chinese economy and the nature of the Chinese market,the nature of the Chinese company,investment in Chinese companies,one of those key learnings that I have.

　　谈到投资重心从美国转移到中国，很多人，也包括我自己，都经历了一段时期，去努力了解中国经济，中国市场，中国企业和投资中国企业的本质。

　　And it is not that obvious,is the role that the Chinese government played in that whole question equation.If you have been a successful investor in the United States for example,or in the developed market,you tend to come with a set of assumptions about the role of the government,and the role of the market participants.

　　其实我学习到的有一点很关键，而这一点不是显而易见的，那就是中国政府在经济当中所扮演的角色。如果你是一个在美国或者其他发达国家的成功投资人，你会对于政府的角色和其他市场参与者的角色有一个预先的设想。

　　And when you really looked into the Chinese market,that assumptions,you will see a lot of challenges,and so you might really from time to time arrive at views that are inconsistent with your own experiences,partially because historically the Chinese government and the US government,the Western government,performed very different rules.And that& #39;s one of the key aspect of really investing in china.It really requires much deeper understanding and also a systematic comparison to get rid of those biases.

　　而当我们真正深入中国市场观察研究，这些设想就会遇到一系列挑战，你会不断的获得与你以前经验认知所不一样的观点和判断。究其原因，起码部分是因为中国和美国或者其他西方国家政府所运行的规则的不同。这是投资中国的核心要素之一，这真的需要深层次的认知，以及系统化的对比来消除偏见。

　　And that& #39;s why that you can really get rid of this typical global investor going to China either involved of the binding.You fear your enthusiasm or basically pessimistic kind of coming collapse of a China type of a mentality when things are not going too well.And so that is the education that most of international investors particularly when it comes to China would have to really go through and that is important.

　　很多国际投资者来到中国，他们要么是特别的乐观，要么是特别的悲观，特别是当他们来到中国投资并不是特别成功的时候，他们会陷入悲观。因此，对于大多数想投资中国的国际投资者来说，都会经历了解和学习中国的这个过程。

　　But bear in mind the other aspect to understand the Chinese economy is that the nature of the modern economy is its ability to generate sustained compounded economic growth.

　　但是要记住中国经济的另一方面是，现代经济的本质是能够产生持续的复合经济增长的能力。

　　Something that is only recently emerged as the human phenomena and this is where we talk about the zero-sum versus west millennial type of mentality.

　　这种（经济持续复合增长的）现象直到最近才作为人类现象出现。这是为什么我们刚才讲到了零和市场以及双赢两种不同的形态。

　　Now for the longest period of time that almost all natural,all human affairs are characterized by cycles.In a sense that everything goes up cycles,you know,we born,and then we grow,and then we die.So as trees goes up,and they die.It& #39;s so entropy basically always increase,energy goes from,you know,hot to cold,things from order to disorder,great businesses eventually losses edge.So that is the nature of things.And economy going through boom and bust.But something unique happened over several hundred years ago was the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.We began to see this phenomenon of continued sustained compounded economic growth.And that is really when that value investing become very important.

　　几乎所有具有周期性的自然和人类发展，都是熵增的过程。从人的出生，成长，到死亡；包括贸易的增多、下降这些，都是非常自然的轮回和循环，就是熵值增加。能量从热变冷，有序变无序，伟大的企业最终都将失去优势，这些都是非常自然的。经济也有向好的或者衰退的时候。但是从几百年前的工业革命开始我们看到了不一样的发展，这种可持续的复合经济增长发展，这个就是价值投资可以展现光彩的时候。

　　And that& #39;s why you& #39;ll begin to have a phenomenal record,such as the one produced by Warren Buffett,and now by a few other people as well.The basic logic behind that,as I said,over the long term,your investment return is likely to approximate the actual business return of the company invested.And so the fact that you& #39;re capable of generating that long-term result is a reflection of a changing nature economy.What really drives that phenomenon is something that is utterly fascinating.I literally spent 30-40 years thinking about that matter.

　　这就是为什么你能看到巴菲特包括现在一些其他投资人能有这么惊人的成绩。背后的逻辑就像我刚才所说的，长期而言，你的投资回报其实就是近似于你投资公司的实际业务回报，也就是你所能创造的长期投资回报，其实就是整体经济发展变化的反映。探究这些发展背后的驱动力，是一件极为吸引人的事情。我花了30-40年思考，才能让我觉得我有了一定程度的认知。

　　Until I think I come to a certain knowledge,I wouldn& #39;t say I really know it at all.But I think what really produced that phenomena is a combination of free market,enterprise way of organizing social economic affairs and combine that one with the invention of modern science and technology.The combination of those two produced a modern form of economy.It is a paradigm shift.So what has happened in China is that roughly around 40 years ago China has really stumbled finally into that magic formula of free market economy,now with Chinese characteristic,of course,along with modern science and technology.

　　因此我不能说我完全懂，但是我认为能创造惊人长期投资回报现象的，是一个公式，即用自由市场竞争的方式来组织社会的经济活动，加上现代科学技术创新发展而成的组合。这两者的组合构建了现代经济，这是一种范式转移（范式转移是指一个领域里出现新的学术成果，打破了原有的假设或者法则，从而迫使人们对本学科的很多基本理论做出根本性的修正）。大约在40年前，中国终于真正进入了有中国特色的自由市场经济模式，这个过程伴随着现代科学技术的发展。任何经济一旦创造出了我刚刚提及的组合公式，就能创造出经济复合增长发展的现象。

　　And any economy that has really strike a core and strike that magic formula began to produce the phenomena of compound economic reform.Now that has to combine with the stability of overall political environment to allow the market to enforce that a new economy to really release that power,and that is when sustained economic,I mean sustained investment record,can be possible in china.It& #39;s not always there.It& #39;s not always possible.And often it was a zero sum.But I think from that period on that a sustained win-win type of a compounded investment return becomes possible.

　　现在，这个公式还需要加上整体政治环境的稳定，去支持给新经济释放活力的市场力量。这就是为什么在中国能有一系列现象级的可持续的成功投资回报记录。任何经济体如果真正采用这一神奇公式，都会开始产生出具有持续复合增长现象的经济形态。但是我认为从40年前开始，一个可持续的、双赢的复合投资回报变成了可能。

　　And notice that I didn& #39;t really include the political component of it,and most of the western observers believe that political democracy has to be part of the equation,except for the propaganda that political democracy wasn& #39;t there when that phenomenon began to take place in the west.In fact the political democracy happened later almost as a result not because of it.Anyway so that is another layer of understanding the phenomena of the investment opportunities in China.It could be interesting.

　　注意，这其中我并没有包括它的政治部分。多数西方观察家认为，民主政治必须成为这个公式的一部分，只是他们忘记了当这种现象在西方开始发生时，民主政治其实还不存在。因此事实上，民主政治只是这个现象的一个结果，而非它的原因。无论如何，这是理解中国投资奇迹的另一层面。这其实非常有意思。

　　4、新兴科技是否会吸引你这样的价值投资者？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,so why don& #39;t we talk more broadly about new trends in value investing?So among the many popular and up rising technological fields,such as 5G,Bitcoin,AI,has any of that attracted your interest as a value investor and why?

　　好，我们接下来在更广维度来谈一下价值投资的新趋势。现在有很多新兴的热门科技领域，比如说像5G、比特币、AI等等，作为一名价值投资者，这些新的科技有没有吸引到你？为什么？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,as I said,if you& #39;re an investor,you really want find out what really influenced the change of your companies.If there& #39;s a one big forces that are really quite a prominent,is/it& #39;s the fast acceleration of technological changes.And of course,you need to be well aware of those mega technological trend.

　　像我之前说的，如果你是一个投资者，你一定要想办法找出影响你标的公司发展和变化的事物。如果说要选一个大的主要趋势，我觉得莫过于科学技术快速变化和迭代。当然你肯定要去很好地了解大的科技趋势。

　　This current run in wave,and this started–called you know,40,50 years"the invention of the semiconductor",particularly integrated circuit.That really ultimately led to personal computer and a computation proliferation,the computation power to ordinary citizens.And from there,there& #39;s also the evolution of communication technologies and then the invention of the internet somewhat 25,30 years ago.Then from there the mobile internet.

　　现在的这一波科技发展，其实是起始于40、50年前半导体或者是集成电路的发明。这些科技成果使个人电脑得以诞生，并让电脑算力可惠及每一个普通人。再往后，25-30年前，有了通信技术的发展，以及互联网的诞生，之后又出现了移动互联网。

　　So,the intersections of a compute,as well as in the omnipresent and instantaneous basically communication really led to this new phenomena of artificial intelligence and the data economy as a result of it.And so,this is a wave of technological change over the last 40 years has fundamentally altered the business landscape of all kinds basically.

　　因此而带来世界的互联互通，以及沟通的及时性与随时性，从而让人工智能和数字经济的热潮产生。而过去40年的这一波科技发展，对各个经济领域都带来了深刻的影响与改变。

　　And so,whatever kind of investor you are,you do need to be aware of that huge changes,and how do you deal with that in a sense.Both you& #39;re investing in businesses that are either well insulated from those technological change or in companies whose management team are quite capable of adaptive to have those technological change better than their competitors or in companies that are leading those changes or enabling those changes.So,that those changes are really on your side basically.

　　因此，不论你是什么样的投资人，你需要意识到这些大的改变趋势，以及知道如何去应对。当然，我们也投了一些这样的公司，它们要么完全不受这些科技变革影响，要么公司的管理层比竞争对手能更为出色地应对科技变革，又或者你投资的公司本身就是在引领变革的。这样，科技的变化对我们就是有利的。

　　And so,now do you have to be a true expert to the point of an engineer?I don& #39;t think you do.But you do need to be broadly aware all those big technology changes.Now,if you happen to be a venture capitalist in those field then of course you do.But if you are a generalist and study all of the businesses,you need to be aware of those trends.And how does it really impact in the industry and the companies that you& #39;re investigating.So,we are still really in the middle of that gigantic wave that started with the invasion of semiconductor.

　　但这样，一个投资人需不需要成为专家，像一个工程师一样了解这些技术呢？我认为不需要，但是你需要对这些大科技趋势有比较好的宏观认知。当然，如果你碰巧是某一细分领域的风险投资人，那你必须足够了解相关技术。但如果你更偏宏观，更专注商业的全局，那你只需了解这些变化的趋势即可，理解这些变化对你所研究的行业和公司会产生什么影响。实际上，我们目前依旧处于40-50年前半导体发明而引发的这一波大的科技浪潮中。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　By the way,you know when the transistor is invented?

　　顺便问一下，你知道晶体管是什么时候发明的吗？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,that& #39;s a longer I know that.

　　嗯，应该是很久以前了。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　That was 1942.

　　是1942年。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　I know that.I know.Yes,yes.

　　没错。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　And the first IC(integrated circuit)is 1961.

　　最早的集成电路是1961年发明的。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Yes.Yes.I& #39;m referring to the time.

　　是的，就是那段时间。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Right.

　　对。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　They get integrated into industry.You know,so that really started this whole revolution,that we& #39;re actually still in the middle of it.And the current wave of neuron-network based artificial intelligence is just kind of the recent iteration and the data economy that as a result of it is a newest adaptation by industries in response to that new technology.We& #39;re going to see more of it as time really began to evolve from here.

　　就是这些发明引发了技术革命，而如前所说，我们仍在大潮中段。当前这波基于神经元网络的人工智浪潮，也是这个大技术革命下的一种新的应用方式，包括数据经济也是各行各业为适应这一新技术变革的产物。随着时间的推移，我们将能看到更多的技术与应用进步。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Do you see opportunities to invest in new technologies?Do you have an example,maybe in your past where you did invest successfully on new technology?

　　讲到新技术，你看到了什么投资机会吗？在你过去的职业生涯当中，有没有投资新科技的成功案例？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　We have,in the sense,back in the days I was trying to really learn about businesses.I invested in a number of startups.And so,I am fascinated about the technologies.And today we have somewhat smaller exposure to that,but it is facinating.It& #39;s not really you& #39;re not interested in technology.It& #39;s just it& #39;s not that easy to predict their impact because of the pace of a change.It does require different aptitude,different domain expertise,etc.And other things is we just have other set of easier opportunities.We just happened to be lucky.

　　从某种程度上讲有的。还是回到我们对于商业研究上面。我曾经投资了一些初创公司，当时我沉迷于技术的发展，而今天，我们在这方面的投资相对较少。但技术的发展是让我非常激动的。我们的这个侧重，不在于我们是不是对技术投资感兴趣，而是在于技术的变化节奏，以及带来的相应产业影响是真的很难预测的。这需要不同的维度，不同的专业知识等等一众其他事物来支撑投资决策。因此，我们选择了其他一些对我们更容易的机会，而且我们也很幸运的抓住了那些机会。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Well,all right.So,let& #39;s talk about a specific example.A lot of smart people believe that renewable energy is the next big revolution and you& #39;ve done a lot of work on battery technology and BYD.So,is that something that you think about beyond batteries?What& #39;s your outlook for the electrical vehicle industry saying in the next five years or is it overheated now?Where is Tesla going?

　　好的，那接下来我们聊一个具体案例吧。很多聪明人都认为新能源是下一波的产业革命。你过去在电池技术领域也做了大量的研究，并投资了比亚迪。电池行业的变化基础上，你看到了什么样的大趋势？未来五年，你认为电动汽车行业走向如何？现在是否过热？你怎么看特斯拉？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Hahaha,so the car industry is mutinously kind of being impact by,you know,four or five big mega trend.The electrification,the right sharing,the autonomous driving,and the intelligent design,all of those are really going into the industry simultaneously.And so,that really had attracted more entrants and that really heated the competition.Also,against that broad background of climate change,current,carbon neutral revolution in the sense.

　　汽车行业是同时会受4到5个大技术趋势发展影响的产业，比如电气化，共享出行，自动驾驶，智能设计等等。因此这样的大产业趋势自然会吸引很多人进入这个产业，竞争也变得更加白热化，还有整体环境气候变暖和碳中和的一些大背景也刺激了这个产业的发展。

　　So,as a result,the industry that really haven& #39;t lasted for a 100 years,it& #39;s really being turned upside down.On the other side,it is the gigantic industry.So,other than housing,this probably one of the biggest industry.And so,the price is also big in the end.In the process though,the competition is going to become very,very intense.Still,you know,it does still have that characteristic of being a scale economy,as we talked about it at the beginning of our dialogue.So the survivors or the winners do need to have a certain scale in order to really to win in the end.

　　正是这些让这个已经有100多年历史的汽车工业，在过去这些年中发生了天翻地覆的变化。汽车可以说是除了地产外，市场最大的行业之一。因此，赢家的最后回报是最够高的。这个领域的竞争极其激烈，特别是汽车行业还一直保有我们最开始所提到的规模经济这个特点，因此，胜者为王，赢家需要有一定的市场规模为基础才能够赢得市场。

　　And so it is still early to predict who will be the ultimate winner.But it is not early at all to predict those megatrends are here to stay.So,five years,there& #39;ll be far more electric cars sold.We have seen the European countries began to declare a deadline to stop basically gasoline-powered cars.China is following that up,I think in due course.

　　现在预言谁能笑到最后还为时过早，但是这些大趋势会持续存在，却是毫无疑问的。五年之后，行驶在路上的电动汽车要比现在多得多。目前欧洲各国已经开始宣布停止燃料汽车销售的最后期限，中国也在跟进。

　　And we were going to see those megatrends here to stay.And five years from now,that trend will become even more prominent than what it is today.But it is very difficult to predict the ultimate winner,and it continues to attract new entrants at this point.But I do think that the ones that are really precise unique technology have the scale,and have the right strategic focus,ultimately will do well.

　　在未来5年这些大趋势依然会存在，而且可能会变得更加重要。现在就预测谁会是最终的赢家还很困难，因为这个市场依旧在吸引很多的新进者。不过，我认为那些拥有独家技术、具备一定规模、聚焦正确战略的公司，将有可能笑到最后。因此，现在去预测谁是行业里的最终赢家仍然太早。不过，去预测这些大的行业趋势是恰逢其时的。毫无疑问，未来的5年，电动汽车的销售市场占比会更高。我们可以看到，欧洲国家已经开始宣布基本叫停汽油车的时间规划了，而我相信中国在合适的时间也会跟进。因此5年后的这个主流趋势，是非常明确的。对于市场的赢家，虽然难以预测，但是我相信那些拥有独特技术，抢占足够规模，找到正确的战略着手点的公司能笑到最后。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Do you have a sense of which companies those are?

　　你感觉会有哪些公司胜出？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,I bashed one.So,I like my money speak for itself.But we& #39;re not going to be the only one.That would be a few.It is a gigantic industry.

　　我有下注，我倾向于让我的投资宣布我的选择。当然，市场上会有一系列赢家，因为汽车行业是一个足够大的市场。

　　5、如何看待美国亚裔群体的生存现状？

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,so what about,let& #39;s just talk briefly in these last eight or so minutes about your personal interest.You& #39;ve devoted efforts to improving equality and welfare of Asian-Americans and,given the recent elevated attention on this community,what are you doing and planning to do or think ought to be done for that community?

　　接下来还有大约8分钟的时间，我们来谈一下你的个人兴趣。您对在美亚裔的平权地位与生活福祉的提升作出了非常大的贡献，而这个群体近期也是备受关注的，能否谈一谈为这个群体，您现在正在做的和未来计划要做的事情？

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Well,I was really,like many people around the Asian-American community in America,just utterly dismayed,heartbroken over the last year and a half,particularly since the later years of the Trump administration,it got worsened because of the pandemic,this new wave of anti-Asian and hate crimes.And by all statistic that instance of a racial discrimination against Asian-American is dramatically increased over the last year and a half.And for a variety of a different reasons,the pandemic,the Trump policies,the U.S./China tension,and the systematic historical root.

　　我们很多在美国的亚裔群体在过去一年半中，尤其是在自特朗普政府后期，以来是非常沮丧和痛心的。在疫情的影响下，这个群体的境遇更为恶化，加剧了新一波的反亚裔潮流和仇恨犯罪。根据统计数据，在过去的一年半中因为各种原因，比如疫情，特朗普政策，中美关系以及历史性系统因素等等，对亚裔美国人的种族歧视急剧增加。

　　Suffice to say that many people in the Asian-American community are living in fears,literally physical fears today after being here for so many years of being such an important part of American experiment.And you know,particularly to the Chinese American community,after 150 years,it feels like the Chinese Exclusion Act is coming back again.And so I have been thinking long and hard,what can we do to change the paradigm?Now,I had a different experience when I came to America.

　　可以说很多的在美亚裔真的是生活在恐惧中，即便在美国生活了如此之久，并成为了这个国家发展的重要组成部分也如此。特别是对华裔美国人而言，感觉150年后，《排华法案》又卷土重来了。我一直在认真思考这个问题，怎么样才能作出一些改变？这和我刚来到美国时是完全不同的体验。

　　I had wonderful,wonderful experiences.America embraced me with open,warm heart,and I have gotten an enormous amount of opportunities,by Columbia University,by all the great people that I met along the way,by the opportunity I was given to be successful way beyond my wildest dreams when I first came here as an immigrant.Not a penny and nobody to speak the language to be where I am today.

　　我最初来美国的时候，有着非常好的体验与经历。当时的美国对我非常的开放和热情，我没有钱，英语也不怎么好，但仍然获得了一系列很好的机会，比如在哥伦比亚大学读书，遇到了这么多成功优秀的人，而且给予我一个海外移民一系列难以想象的发展机会，才成为了今天的我。

　　And so one thing that I always believed about America is this.I think America is not defined by geography.It is not defined by race.It is not defined by culture,not defined by religion.America is defined by a set of ideas and ideals.Anyone,no matter your race,religion,culture,background,if you sign up to that set of ideas and ideals,can be America.I was one of those who believe in those ideas and ideals that became a successful American.And I want that experiment to really continue.

　　所以一直以来我认为，美国对自己的定义不是来自其地理边界、种族、宗教或文化，而是来自某些人类共通的理念、精神和理想。只要你认可这些理念、精神和理想，那你就是美国人。我坚信，这样的想法和理念，可以帮助你成为成功的美国人。我是那些相信这些想法和理想并在美国获得成功的人之一，我也很希望这个实验能持续下去。

　　And obviously,when you look at history,it was never a perfect experiment,and it was often marked by the cleansingness,sometimes actually outright cruel and malicious if you think about experiences with the African-Americans and all the other minorities,but I think America remains the only country on earth,so inspired and such constructed.And for that experiment to continue,it calls constantly to our better angels inside each one of us and to really restrict the worst instincts of all of us.

　　当然，回顾历史，这并不是一个完美的实验，常常看起来很笨拙，如果你想想非裔或者所有其他少数族裔所经历的挣扎和苦难，有些时期甚至会看起来相当残忍或者恶劣。但是我仍认为，受人类共通之理念、精神和理想启发而建立起一个国家——美国仍是世界上独此一例。为了使这项伟大的实验得以存续，我们需要不断呼唤内心更良善美好的天使，也要对人性本能之恶时时警省。

　　And throughout a different period of time,people need to rise up to counter those worst instinct and face them down.And this is one of those periods again.So,I think the entire community of Asian-Americans have to come together.The entire American community need to really come together to really fight this wave of anti-Asian discrimination.

　　在历史的不同时期，人们不时需要站起来对抗这些人性中最大的恶并直面它们。我们现在就处于这样的历史时期。我认为亚裔群体一定要团结起来，全体美国社会需要团结起来对这一波歧视亚裔的行为进行有力应对。

　　So along with a number of wonderful colleagues,we& #39;re cofounding a new national organization whose mission is to serve Asian-Americans in their pursuit of belonging and prosperity,free from discrimination,slander or violence.

　　所以我跟几个优秀的同事一起，共同创建了一个新的全国性组织，使命是帮助亚裔美国人找到归属感和富足的生活，不受歧视，诽谤或暴力侵害。

　　And one of the things that our community needs is enormous amount of funding.The statistic tells us that only 0.2%of all philanthropy in America goes to Asian-American causes,and we want to fundamentally change that.And hopefully with this new organization,new group of people,we really want to fundamentally change from that picture.

　　这需要很多的资金。数据显示，美国只有0.2%的公益慈善基金是用于亚裔相关的项目中。因此我们希望从根本上改变这点，希望这个新的组织，新的团队群体，能让我们改变现状。

　　And the other thing is that with the global economy,the center of the global economy,shifting from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific Ocean,the Asian-American,20 million strong,are going to play an increasingly important role to position America as the new Pacific economic power.And that group of people,more than other ones,if fully integrated as the very fabric of American society,could help lead America to better integrated with the rising economic ties in Asia.

　　另外一点是，全球经济的重点逐渐从大西洋转到了太平洋，这也意味着亚裔这两千万人将会扮演越来越重要的角色，帮助美国能更好成为太平洋地区发展的主要力量。如果这个群体能彻底融入美国社会的组织结构，将可以帮助和引导美国更好地融入亚洲的经济增长大潮。

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Okay,Li Lu that& #39;s terrific.It& #39;s a great note to end on.Unfortunately,we have two minutes left.Thank you very much for this really.Thank you very much for this really encyclopedic and enlightening talk.I think I have to turn it back over,however,to the M.C.For the last two minutes,right?

　　好，我觉得你刚才讲的非常好，结尾论述很精彩。不过，现在只有两分钟的时间了。再次感谢李录先生，谢谢你做了如此百科全书式的、颇具启发性的谈话，接下来的两分钟就交回给我们的主持人。

　　Mr.Li Lu:

　　Ok.Thank you for really having that class 28 years ago,without that class I wouldn’t know what I’m doing today,so thank you.

　　好的。28年前您的课程对我影响太大了，如果不是您的课，我现在都不知道我在做什么。谢谢你！

　　Professor Greenwald:

　　Brilliant.Vivi,can you hear us?

　　不客气。现在就交回给Vivi。