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七禾网 时间:2023-12-12 14:10:02 来源:七禾网

巴菲特:如何解决错误择时?

Most investors, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise, they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power. I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill.

大多数股民并没有把对公司前景研究作为他们生活中的优先事项。如果明智的话,大多数股民应该得出结论:他们对那些具体公司的了解,还不足以预测那些公司未来的盈利能力。对这些非专业人士,我有个好消息:通常投资者不需要这种技能。


In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. 

随着时间的推移,美国公司作为一个整体,已经取得了惊人的成就,并将继续保持下去(尽管可以肯定会断断续续)。在20世纪,道琼斯工业指数从66点上涨到11,497点,股息不断增加。21世纪将见证更多的收获,几乎可以肯定是非常可观的收获。


The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners, but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal. That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. 

非专业人士的目标不应是挑选赢家,但拥有一个跨行业的公司组合一定会表现良好——一只低成本的标准普尔500指数基金将实现这一目标。对于非专业投资者来说,这就解决了“买什么”的问题。“什么时候买”也很重要。胆小的或初学的投资者会在极度繁荣的时候进入市场,然后在账面损失发生时大失所望。对于投资者来说,解决错误择时的办法是:长期买入,不断积攒份额,当消息不好、股票都跌得稀里哗啦的时候,千万不要卖出。


Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.

遵循这些规则,那些既分散投资又保持最低成本的小白投资者几乎肯定获得满意结果。事实上,和知识渊博但对自己哪怕一个弱点都视而不见的专业投资者相比,对自己缺点诚实的普通投资者能够获得更好的长期回报。


以上内容节选自巴菲特2014年致股东信

由数字人巴菲特播报

本视频由七华软件用人工智能技术生成


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