I don& #39;t know whether the world& #39;s up to 88million barrels or was down around 85million barrels but there& #39;s got to be some comeback, so I wouldn& #39;t be surprised the current figures getting pretty close 88 million barrels a day. That& #39;s a lot of oil to take out of the ground every day and of course there are new frontiers have been found but it is a finite number.

我不知道世界一天能生产多少石油，8800万桶还是8500万桶，不过最近有增产，所以如果目前的数字是8800万桶左右我也不会惊讶。每天都有大量石油从地下被挖出，现在又有了新的开采地，但这终究是有限的资源。

So the one thing I can almost promise you is that oil will sell for a lot more someday. We have looked in a lot of places now and what& #39;s happening of course from the sample of the United States companies is that the smaller countries where oil is being found now are quite a bit smarter. So that they drive much more intelligent deals than I was originally the case when we went exploring around the world.

所以我能向你保证的一件事，总有一天，石油的价格会更高。以美国公司为样本，我们看过了很多地方，现在发现石油的小国家在如何让步方面要聪明得多，所以他们做出的交易比我最初在世界各地探险时要明智得多。

I thought if we could guess the price of oil, we didn& #39;t need to run the railroad. I mean it took a lot of effort, time to run that railroad and if we know how to make money just sitting in the room trading oil why not do that instead?

我觉得如果我们真的可以预测油价，我们就不需要运营铁路了，这活儿既费精力又费时间。如果我们知道如何通过在办公室交易石油而赚取，那为什么不这样做呢？

But there are very few commodities that I& #39;ve ever thought I would know the direction of their movement in the next 6 months or a year. The one thing I& #39;m quite convinced of is the fact the dollar will become less valuable over time, so that the dollar price of most things will go up and maybe go up very substantially.

但是，在未来6个月或一年时间内我能预测价格走势的商品非常之少。但有一件事我非常确信，随着时间的推移，美元会变得越来越不值钱，所以大多数东西的美元价格都会上涨，并且可能会大幅上涨。

I really think that an intelligent person can make more money over time thinking about assets, productive assets rather than speculating in commodities or went for that matter fixed dollar investments, but that& #39;s maybe my own bias.

我真的认为一个聪明的人可以通过研究资产，尤其是生产性资产而赚钱，而不是做大宗商品投机或是做固定收益投资，但这可能是我自己的偏见。

以上内容节选自巴菲特对大宗商品的看法

由数字人巴菲特播报

本视频由七华软件用人工智能技术生成