We try to think about two things that are important and knowable. Now there are things that are important but not knowable in our view or there are things that are knowable but not important, we don& #39;t want to cut our minds up with those.

我们试着去思考重要的事情和可知的事情。如果现在有一些重要但在我们看来不可知的事，或者一些可知但不重要的事，我们不会将精力放在上面。

What is important and what is knowable, and what among the things that fall within those two categories? Can we translate into some kind of an action that is useful for Berkshire. There& #39;re all kinds of important subjects that Charlie and I don& #39;t know anything about. Therefore we don& #39;t think about them.

我们要知道什么是重要的事，什么是可知的事，什么属于这两类事，以及我们能否将其转化为对伯克希尔有用的某种行动。确实有各种各样重要的问题，我和查理都不知道答案，所以我们不会去考虑这些问题。

But we do think we know something about what Coca-Cola is going to look like in 10 years, so as Gillette, Disney and some of our operating subsidiaries. We care a lot and think a lot about this, we want to be right about that, the others things are less important.

但是，我们确实对可口可乐、吉列、迪士尼或是旗下运营的一些子公司有所了解，并会思考他们会在10年后将是什么样子。我们对此确实非常关注，也思考了很多，我们希望在这方面是正确的，而其它事情则没有那么重要。

For example, Coca-Cola went public in 1919 and one share cost 40 dollars. The first year it went down a little over 50 percent, at the end of the year was down to 19 dollars. If you had perfect foresight, you would have seen the world& #39;s greatest depression, you would have seen world warⅡ, you would have seen atomic bombs and hydrogen bombs, you would have seen all kinds of things. And you could always find a reason to postpone why you should buy that share of Coca-Cola. But the important thing wasn& #39;t to see they were going to be selling a billion eight ounce servings of beverages a day.

举个例子，1919年，可口可乐上市，股价是40美元。第一年就下跌超50%到19美元。如果你有先见之明，你会看到世界上最严重的萧条、第二次世界大战、原子弹和氢弹爆炸，你会看到各种各样的事情。你总能找到一个推迟购买可口可乐股份的理由。但更重要的是，你要看到他们将每天卖出10亿份8盎司的饮料。

If you develop the view on these other subjects that in any way, it will forestalled you acting on this more important specific narrow view about the future of the company. You would have missed a great ride.

如果你在其它（不重要的）方面形成看法，那无论如何都会阻止你按照公司未来更重要的观点来采取行动。你会错过一次很棒的机会。

以上内容为巴菲特经典语录整理

由数字人巴菲特播报

本视频由七华软件用人工智能技术生成