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I know what the chewing business will look like ten years from now. The Internet is not going to change how we chew gum and nothing much else is going to change how we chew gum. 虽然我不拥有口香糖的公司,但是我知道10年后他们的发展会怎样。互联网是不会改变我们嚼口香糖的方式的,事实上,没什么能改变我们嚼口香糖的方式。 You give me a billion dollars and tell me to go into the chewing gum business and try to make a real dent in Wrigley& #39;s. I can’t do it. That is how I think about businesses. I say to myself, give me a billion dollars and how much can I hurt the guy? Give me 10 billion dollars and how much can I hurt Coca-Cola around the world? I can& #39;t do it. Those are good businesses. Now give me some money and tell me to hurt somebody in some other fields, and I can figure out how to do it. 如果你给我10个亿,让我进入口香糖的生意,打开一个缺口,我无法做到。这就是我考量一个生意的基本原则。给我10个亿,我能对竞争对手有多少打击?给我100个亿,我对全世界的可口可乐的损失会有多大?我做不到,因为,他们的生意稳如磐石。给我些钱,让我去占领其他领域,我却总能找出办法把事情做到。 So I want a simple business, easy to understand, great economics now, honest and able management, and then I can see about in a general way where they will be ten years from now. If I can& #39;t see where they will be ten years from now, I don& #39;t want to buy it. Basically, I don& #39;t want to buy any stock where if they close the NYSE tomorrow for five years, I won& #39;t be happy owning it. 所以,我要找的生意就是简单,容易理解,经济上行得通,诚实,能干的管理层。这样,我就能看清这个企业10年的大方向。如果我做不到这一点,我是不会买的。基本上来讲,我只会买那些,即使纽约证交所从明天起关门五年,我也很乐于拥有的股票。 People buy a stock and they look at the price next morning and they decide to see if they are doing well or not doing well. It is crazy. You are not buying a stock, you are buying part ownership in a business. You will do well if the business does well, if you didn’t pay a totally silly price. 人们买股票,根据第二天早上股票价格的涨跌,决定他们的投资是否正确,这简直是扯淡。你买的不是股票,你买的是一部分企业生意。企业好,你的投资就好,只要你的买入价格不是太离谱。 |
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